Jerusalem Studio
The program offers the viewer deeper understanding about current events in Israel. The topics vary from domestic and foreign policy to social changes, archaelogy and religion.
The program is hosted by TV7 Israel News anchor Jonathan Hessen.
Episodes
The Philadelphi Corridor and Hamas' bid to Survive
When Israel withdrew its forces and settlements from Gaza, 19 years ago, it was a unilateral move only as far as the Palestinian Authority was concerned. There was an agreement between Israel and Egypt regarding the border between Egypt’s Northern Sinai district at Rafah and the Gaza Strip, code-named Philadelphi on Israeli maps. This 14 kilometer ribbon of sand and land, from the Mediterranean to Rafah, became the focus of major smuggling activities in both directions, enabling Hamas to bolster its arsenal and build its vast tunnel network. Now that the IDF is in control of Philadelphi, it turned into both a strategic as well as a political bone of contention, with the Netanyahu school claiming that Israel must stay there regardless of cost and the defense establishment pushing it down the priority list, compared to other assets and needs.Tue 17.9.2024 at 21.15Israel's Preparations for a Full-Scale Northern War
In the 11 months since Hezbollah launched its first attacks on Israel’s Northern communities, the IDF was restrained in its counter-offensive, limiting it to stand-off strikes, mostly from the air. The center of gravity of the multi-front war was and remains Gaza. The idea, backed by Hezbollah's declarations, was that a ceasefire with Hamas will be followed by quiet on the Lebanese border, too, diplomacy to remove the threat from the vicinity of the Blue Line with Israel and the return of many thousands of displaced to their towns and villages. however, with persistent problems plaguing the hostage deal talks, a full-scale war between Israel and the Iranian proxy has become a real possibility, engulfing the reluctant parties and the region with them.Fri 13.9.2024 at 21.15Iran's Nuclear Weapons Race : Breakout Inevitable? Israel at War
Iran has invested a lot of effort over several decades to advance it’s nuclear project, giving it the option of racing towards nuclear weapons if it so chooses, which Western Intelligence claims it has not yet achieved. But if this is indeed the case, then Iran is simply a mere policy decision away from shedding its civilian use costume in favor of admitting the true nature of its nuclear enterprise. Iran could opt for remaining in its current position of a de-facto threshold nuclear weapon state, or make a run for a fait accompli, forcing Israel and the US to rise to the challenge and make good on their threats to do everything in their power to disrupt and destroy it.Tue 10.9.2024 at 21.15Iran's Push for Influence in the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa : Israel at War
When Iran looks westward, it sees only Arabs - Iraq in the North and Saudi Arabia and the Persian or Arabian Gulf in the south. Further west lies Jordan, Syria and Israel in the north and Egypt and the Horn of Africa in the south. It therefore appears to be part of the Islamic Republic’s grand plan to penetrate both the Peninsula and the Horn, in order to gain additional bases of operation against Iran’s adversaries, primarily Israel and the US Central Command.Fri 6.9.2024 at 21.45Dangers Ahead?
Last Sunday Israel has successfully preempted and deflected an attack plan hatched by the Lebanese Iranian-proxy Hezbollah. The risk of immediate escalation into a full-scale regional war has receded for the moment, as the Iranians masters - directing the Lebanese Shi’ites - would rather wait for better circumstances, from their perspective. Nevertheless, Israel cannot let down its guard, as other Iranian proxies, from Syria and Iraq all the way south to Yemen, are plotting their own attacks. So what are the dangers ahead for Israel, as it is still involved in Gaza and Lebanon?Tue 3.9.2024 at 21.15Israel’s Geo-Strategic Woes, amid Prospects of Escalation - Part II
In the preceding discussion we dealt with Israel’s geo-strategic problems from three points of view - its closest concern, the Palestinians; the neighboring Arab countries, Egypt, Jordan and others, all the way to Saudi Arabia; and the more distant ring of the Arabian Gulf, especially Iran as well as Yemen and Turkey.Tue 27.8.2024 at 20.30Israel’s Geo-Strategic Woes, amid Prospects of Escalation - Part I
Israel has always managed its strategic interests and aspirations according to a three-layer perspective. The inner ring had to do with the Palestinian population or entities either within its sovereign territory or adjacent to it. The next ring was composed of three neighboring Arab countries, initially all hostile, eventually some yielding to reality and making peace with it. The external ring was removed by hundreds of kilometers from Israel’s borders and therefore featured both enemies such as Iraq and Libya and regimes such as Tehran’s and Ankara’s, whose policy towards the Jewish State changed with internal circumstances.Fri 23.8.2024 at 20.30West VS East vis-a-vis Mideast Intricacies – Israel at War
There was a time, not so long ago, when an appeal by the world’s leading powers would reflect a general consensus encompassing not only Washington and London, Berlin and Paris, Tokyo and Ottawa, but also Moscow and Beijing. But no longer.Tue 20.8.2024 at 20.30The Middle East on the Cusp of Wide-Scale War - Israel at War
Racing or Bracing was the question lingering on everyone’s minds in the Middle East and beyond during the last two weeks. This after Iran’s proxies Hezbollah and Hamas suffered a one-two punch in both Beirut and Tehran, with senior leader’s assassinated by Israel, whether acknowledged or not. These threats were explicit, causing the targeted nation to wonder not if it was going to be struck, but rather when, where, how and what sort of counter-counter-strike it was to prepare.Fri 16.8.2024 at 22.00A Strategic Overview of the Iran-Israel War - Part 2 : Israel at War
The exchange of blows between Iran and Israel brings into focus the fact that for all the claims of sovereignty and independence, no nation, or hybrid entities such as Gaza and Lebanon ruled respectively by Hamas and Hezbollah, fights alone.Tue 13.8.2024 at 20.30A Strategic Overview of the Iran-Israel War - Part 1 : Israel at War
Israel never had any designs against Iran. The two nations are neither neighbors with competing claims nor natural rivals as regional powers. The Persians, along with the Azeri minority and other communities, are Muslims but not Arabs. For several decades, when Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi ruled Iran, Tehran and Jerusalem were de-facto members of the same pro-Western alliance.Fri 9.8.2024 at 20.30Iran’s threat to global security
Israeli officials have been warning about it for many years, and while it was not inevitable, had other options and policies been pursued, it is now obvious that the Islamic Republic of Iran is posing a major threat to global security. It is not only threatening Israel, but destabilizing the entire Middle East, challenging the world maritime order and aggressively plans and tries to execute cyber and assassination plots. Most ominously, it is mere days away from accumulating enough fissile material for a nuclear device.Tue 6.8.2024 at 20.30Israel-Lebanon on the brink of all-out war
For almost 10 months now, Israel has been attacked by the Iranian proxy, Lebanese-based Hezbollah. It was a war of attrition, in which fire is exchanged by whatever means the parties have at their disposal, short of ground invasions. Dozens were killed on the Israeli side, and the IDF’s response was a systematic operation to degrade Hezbollah’s strength by targeting leaders and squads. While both sides signaled a reluctance to escalate, it was inherently explosive, and this past Saturday, in a rocket attack on a peaceful football stadium in the village of Majdal Shams, the explosion was triggered. From a face-off on the brink of war, Israel and Lebanon, which has been abducted and held hostage by Hezbollah, are now headed towards a major confrontation, the likes of which were last seen in 2006. Is this war avoidable? What will it entail, and is there a last chance for diplomacy?Fri 2.8.2024 at 20.30Iran and a Multi-Sector War : Israel at War
Earlier this week, US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman CQ Brown voiced concern that Israel would be drawn into a full-scale war with Hezbollah. General Brown stated his fears that if Israel seems to be beating the Iranian proxy, Tehran would then join the fight in order to save its Lebanese arm from annihilation. The inevitable conclusion is that Iran prefers saving its regional tentacles for a time of its own choosing, but, if one of them should be threatened with extinction, it would jump into the fray, even at the cost of making its homeland another battleground.Fri 28.6.2024 at 20.30Iran’s Nuclear Race: Israel at War
It takes both will and ability to acquire nuclear weapons, and both of these are susceptible to outside pressure. It should be taken as a given that, left to its own devices, Iran would have more than likey crossed the nuclear threshold long ago. In recent weeks it seems that the US and the IAEA have been alarmed by Iran's deception and denial tactics, and have started to use stronger language than before. Is it now too late to stop the Iranian atomic train, with the only option remaining to bomb it in its tracks as it attempts to leave the station?Tue 25.6.2024 at 20.30Iran and its Regional Proxies: the Rising Threat of War : Israel at War
Except for its failed April 14 missile and drone attack, Iran has been careful to conduct its war against Israel only through proxies. In the West, Hamas. In the North, Hezbollah. In the East, Iraqi Shiite militias. In the South, Yemen’s Houthis.Fri 21.6.2024 at 21.00
This has been a low-risk strategy for Tehran, but it does have one serious flaw - casualties and escalation are not under any party’s control, and Israel may decide to regain the initiative and hit Iran directly and much more powerfully than it did in mid-April.srael’s Strategic Conundrum: From Gaza through Washington to Beirut
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s plane probably flies to the Middle East on autopilot, as Blinken is so frequently commuting to Tel Aviv, Cairo, and Riyadh among other major regional destinations. This time around his focus is on the Biden deal for a prolonged ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which would result in hostage release but also will let Hamas avoid defeat by the IDF. As Hezbollah clings to its avowed policy of tying its own willingness to stop hostilities along Lebanon’s southern border, Israel’s dilemma is whether to have two ceasefires or none. Joining us to contemplate how the Israeli leadership is to make its way through this maze : Panel: - Host : Jonathan Hessen : Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute - Editor at Large : Amir Oren : Host of Watchmen Talk and Powers in Play - BG (Ret.) Amnon Sofrin : former Mossad Chief of Intelligence - BG (Res.) Yaron Rosen : former IAF Commander and Chief of the IDF Cyber StaffTue 18.6.2024 at 20.30Europe’s Election and Implications for the Mideast : Israel at War
The 720 members of the European Parliament have been elected over the past several days. This is six times the number of Knesset members in Israel, and the impact on the ability of reaching a consensus is comparable.Fri 14.6.2024 at 20.30
With the new make-up of the EU’s legislative now apparent, jockeying is now expected in the contest for the Commission’s President, a position held over the last five years by Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen.
What are the forces shaping the new institutions of the EU, who will be the major figures in foreign policy and security, and are the implications for the Mideast already evident?A Fresh Look at Washington Mideast Policy : Israel at War
Some seven months from now, next January 20th, a President will take the Oath of Office and will begin a second term with a new team and presumably a new policy, improving on whatever did not work the first time around. Whether the Chief Executive turns out to be Biden or Trump, he will most certainly have a heavy load to bear, including Russia and China, but as always the Middle East will place a significant demand on policy and personnel decisions.Tue 11.6.2024 at 20.30Holding in Gaza, Racing in Tehran? Israel at War
The urgent always takes priority over the important. It is natural - first aid, or more crucially a tourniquet, must be administered immediately, while surgery can be delayed, if death does not look imminent. Therefore, Israel and the West are understandably preoccupied with Hamas and Hezbollah, but under this cover Iran may be running, or at least walking, towards its first nuclear weapons.Fri 7.6.2024 at 20.30Military Moves under Legal Limits - Israel after two Hague Blows : Israel at War
The two International Courts in the Hague may not agree on everything in their respective jurisdictions, but they do seem to be on the same page when Israel is attacked. A few days after the ICC prosecutor recommended arrest warrants against Israel’s Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, the ICJ sought to curtail its operations in Rafah. How does this look from the inside, where the Government in Jerusalem and its Agencies and Missions have to take these legal challenges into account while still pursuing their campaigns?Tue 4.6.2024 at 20.30U.S.-Europe Foreign Policy vs Mideast & Israel : Israel at Wa
Even before this week’s announcement by the International Criminal Court prosecutor regarding charges against certain Israeli officials, there were already differences in opinion and policy between the Biden administration and European governments and institutions.Tue 28.5.2024 at 20.30
Despite the occasional tension between Washington and Jerusalem, the American support for Israel has been far more solid than that shown by both the EU and individual capitals.Iran VS Israel : The Looming Threat of Regional Conflagration : Israel at War
Iran may have lost two important members of its government earlier this week, but the direction in which its Supreme Leader has been taking it for many years in his quest for nuclear power and his enmity towards Israel and the United States remains firm.Fri 24.5.2024 at 20.30The Palestinian Quest for Statehood : Israel at War
For two decades, between the United Nations’ Partition Resolution and the Six-Day War, the Palestinians were either not willing or not able to establish a state of their own.Tue 21.5.2024 at 20.30Iran’s Grand Strategy Amid Western Complacency : Israel at War
In the 1980’s, global and regional powers looked from the sidelines as the Islamic Republic of Iran clashed with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Now the tables seem to have turned.Fri 17.5.2024 at 20.30The Middle East : Emerging Counter-Balancing Alliances : Israel at War
On the eve of Israel’s Independence Day, the most prominent feature of its own statehood as well as of the entire Middle East is the inter-dependence of all regional entities, both among local partners and with global powers.Tue 14.5.2024 at 20.30Hamas VS Israel : What's Next? Israel at War
The Gaza War is now in its eighth month, and whether its going to be the last one, or only the first month of a collapsible truce, is soon to be decided between Tel Aviv and Rafah, Washington and Cairo.Fri 10.5.2024 at 20.30Western policy of containment versus aggressive adversaries
More than three years into President Biden’s term, his policy is unmistakable. As the leader of the US and therefore of the so-called “Free World”, Biden prefers to contain global and regional adversaries in a non-confrontational manner, rather than answer their aggressive behaviour with assertive demonstrations of American power.Tue 7.5.2024 at 20.30US-Israel VS Iran-Russia-China in the Mideast
While the enemy of my enemy may indeed almost always be my friend, it does not necessarily follow that the friend of my enemy is automatically my enemy. International relations are of course more complicated than any simplistic headline.Fri 3.5.2024 at 20.30Defense and Offense in Regional Conflicts
Israel at War. Earlier this month, within a period lasting less than a week, the Israeli Air Force demonstrated its capabilities in the two basic domains of warfare : defense and offense.Tue 30.4.2024 at 20.30
First, along with the US and other friendly militaries, it intercepted hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones, minimizing hits and casualties on the ground. Then, in an apparent though undeclared operation, it sent a signal to Iran through a very limited attack on one or two of its facilities.The Gaza War and the Iranian Dimension
Israel under Siege? When Yahya Sinwar ordered his murderous minions to invade the peaceful residents of the Negev’s towns and villages last October, he hoped and expected Moslems from every corner surrounding Israel to follow his lead. Sinwar was disappointed by the partial response, harassing Israel and preventing it from devoting its entire might to Gaza, but not constituting additional full fronts. Now, however, with the sudden escalation between Israel and Iran, Sinwar’s dream may be closer to realization.Tue 23.4.2024 at 20.30Iran’s Nuclear Race: Is Breakout Imminent?
Although Iran did not initiate the April round of hostilities with Israel, which started with the assassination of its IRGC officers in Damascus, Tehran did respond with an outsized attack. And now, even though it was blocked by Israel - with a little help from her friends - there is a danger of Iran feeling cocky enough to risk a breakout towards nuclear weapons.Fri 19.4.2024 at 20.30Countering Threats to Freedom of Navigation
Israel’s Greatest Southern Challenge. Israel at War. Casualties counted by either killed, wounded or captured are not the only measures of a War’s toll. Nor are the displaced or properties destroyed or damaged by bombs, shells and missiles.Tue 16.4.2024 at 20.30Six Months of Fighting Across the Lebanon-Israel Border
Problems and Prospects. Israel at War. The term “the day after”, so widely used regarding the elusive political aftermath of the Gaza War, also actually applies to Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah. This started with the Shiite militia’s attack the day after Hamas launched its offensive in October, and may or may not end the day after a ceasefire is reached on the Southern front.Fri 12.4.2024 at 20.30Lost in Translation?
The costs of indirect negotiations, through mediators. Peace and pause are naturally negotiated by and between enemies, but not always directly. When the alienation between the parties as it is when Israel faces hostile forces bent on its very destruction, mediators are necessary. This goes back to the armistice agreements of 1949 and is especially evident when Jerusalem is faced by Non-Governmental militias rathet than states - the PLO, Hezbollah, Hamas. Is this an effective way to reach a meeting of the minds, or are the costs of having matchmakers with their own stakes in the deal too high? Panel: - Host Amir Oren, TV7 Editor at Large - Col. (Ret.) Dr. Eran Lerman, Co-host TV7 Middle East Review, Powers-in-Play Panelist, JISS VP and Editor in Chief of the Jerusalem Strategic TribuneTue 9.4.2024 at 20.30
- BGEN (Ret) Dr. amnon sofrin Former Mossad Intelligence Directorate Chief.Egypt, challenge or crisis, Israel at War
Egypt has always been the proudest and most important Arab country, first to gain its independence and with a reasonable military if not economic claim to lead the various competing nations of the Arab world. But Egypt is also continuosly beset by problems in almost every sphere and had become dependent on the generosity of outside forces. How serious are the challenges to President A-Sisi's ability to rule over the Land of the Pharahos? Panel: - Host Amir Oren, TV7 Editor at Large - Col. (Ret.) Dr. Eran Lerman, Co-host TV7 Middle East Review, Powers-in-Play Panelist, JISS VP and Editor in Chief of the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune - BGEN (Ret) Dr. amnon sofrin Former Mossad Intelligence Directorate Chief .Fri 5.4.2024 at 20.30Israel's Northern Arena : Iran's Military Preparations for War
Israel at War. For many years, war with Hezbollah was the major scenario for which the Israel Defense Forces prepared, with Gaza being a distant second and Iran looming far off on the horizon. October 7 changed this calculus. Hamas launched the war, Hezbollah half-heartedly joined the fray, and Iran appears concerned that Israel used this escalation to attack it and is now poised to strike Israel from all directions by its own Revolutionary Guard and various proxies.Tue 2.4.2024 at 20.30Mideast Intricacies amid Strategic Power Competition
Israel at War. For a rare moment earlier this week, all of the world’s leading powers were almost on the same page. This occurred when the UN Security Council voted for a Ramadan ceasefire, with Russia and China, Britain, France and others in favor and the US abstaining. This, however, seems like an exception to the current rule of a total breach between the American and the Russian-Chinese camps. With Israel and the moderate Arab countries in the first camp and Iran in the second, how does the great power competition play out now in the Middle East?Fri 29.3.2024 at 20.30US - Israel Relations, Amid Rising Bilateral Tensions : Israel at War
When Hamas viciously attacked Israel, committing unspeakable horrors, there was no daylight between Jerusalem and Washington. President Biden sprang into action and immediately provided Israel with essential military, naval and diplomatic support.Tue 26.3.2024 at 20.30Can Israel Defeat Hamas, as International Pressure Mounts? Israel at War
On the sixth month of the Gaza War, there is growing doubt as to whether Israel can defeat the terror organization whose October 7 massacre catalysed a chain reaction.Fri 22.3.2024 at 20.30Anti-Semitism : Spillover from the Israel-Hamas War?
Israel at War. The scourge of Anti-Semitism long preceded Zionism and indeed was a major factor in generating this movement, when the visionary Theodor Herzl considered the implication of the Dreyfus Affair.Tue 19.3.2024 at 20.30Can a Northern War be Averted? Israel at War
Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are spoiling for a full-scale war. This conclusion is well established after five months of constant exchanges of fire between the Lebanese border and the Galilee district of Northern Israel.Fri 15.3.2024 at 20.30Iran's Nuclear Program : IAEA Raises the Alarm : Israel at War
Masks and costumes have always been a feature of Persian culture, in peacetime and wartime, for fashion and fun, and this could possibly even be the origin for the festival of Purim. Now the Iranian nuclear project seems to be wearing several masks simultaneously, the more the better to confuse whoever suspects Tehran of working towards nuclear weapons.Tue 12.3.2024 at 20.30The Middle East : A Regional Threat Assessment : Israel at War
Looking forward to the beginning of Ramadan next week, the Middle East anxiously waits to see whether or not last-minute developments will signal a short-term respite from the violence which has engulfed the Arab-Israeli divide during recent months, having branched south to the Red Sea and east to an indirect Iranian-American confrontation.Fri 8.3.2024 at 20.30Iran's Nuclear Race : Is a Looming Breakout Inevitable? Israel at War
With all eyes on Iran’s policy through proxies - from Gaza and Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen - the most strategically significant event could evade detection. That being a possible breakout in the Iranian quest for nuclear weapons, where the Supreme Leader’s henchmen have been slowly but surely tiptoeing towards the starting gate, and may even already be on the track itself.Tue 5.3.2024 at 20.30Hezbollah’s Low-Intensity War versus Israel
Israel at War. Whether by its own calculus, or due to strict instructions by Iran - or even both - Hezbollah have been cautious since October 8 to conduct brinkmanship by fire. The Lebanese Shiite militia, considered a ‘terror army’ by Israel, has limited its launches of missiles and rockets to the Upper Galilee district, signaling that it has no appetite for a full-scale, cross-border war which would include ground incursions.Tue 27.2.2024 at 20.30Egypt’s Crucial Role in Mideast Stability amid Looming Rafah Offensive
Israel at War. Egypt is the most important, populous and militarily capable of the Arab countries. Its 42 year peace agreement with Israel has so far withstood crises. Without it, the Mideast would surely have been constantly unstable and prone to repeated wars.Fri 23.2.2024 at 20.30Iran’s Threat to Middle East Stability : Prospects of Wider Escalation - Israel at War
On a recent visit to Lebanon, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, declared that Tehran never wanted the Hamas-Israel war to expand into a wider regional conflict.Tue 20.2.2024 at 20.30The Western Response to the Gaza War & Regional Hostilities - Israel At War
After the horrific massacre perpetrated by Hamas on October 7 last year, the general consensus in the outside world towards Israel - apart from Iran and its affiliates - was a naturally sympathetic one.Fri 16.2.2024 at 20.30The Middle East : Geo-Political and Strategic Intricacies - Israel at War
The Middle East in the winter of 2024 is testimony to the old mix of change and continuity. Many of the actors and factors were around a year ago and some even much earlier, but now there are also some new elements.Tue 13.2.2024 at 20.30Iran’s Nuclear Progress: Prospects of Breakout - Israel at War
The Iranian leadership seems to have adopted a cautious attitude to the current crisis in the Middle East. It has not given up on any of its hegemonic ambitions or its efforts to undermine Israel and the United States; however, it has left the actual clashes to its various proxies and signaled that it does not seek direct military confrontation.Fri 9.2.2024 at 20.30Israel’s Northern Conundrum: Is War with Hezbollah Inevitable?
Israel at War. The current round of Hezbollah’s attack on Israel’s northern border started with the Gaza war and may even end with it, if the Shiite militia leader Hassan Nasrallah is to be believed.Tue 6.2.2024 at 20.30Rising Tensions amid Iran’s Regional Aspirations
Israel At War. After a long period of passively absorbing blows by Iranian proxies from Baghdad to Bab-el-Mandeb, the United States is striking back against Houthis and Iraqi militias alike.Fri 2.2.2024 at 20.30Iran’s Nuclear Program amid Accelerated Proliferation
Diversion has a double meaning in the current Iranian context. In its nuclear project, Iran is diverting quantities of fissile material to a dangerous level of enrichment, while the global and regional focus on the friction between the Iranian proxies may also serve to divert attention away from this nuclear issue. IAEA Chief Grossi recently voiced his frustration regarding the lack of Iranian cooperation with his agency, saying in mid-January that the Iranian quest for weapon-level material was at a “plateau”, but also warning that this could change any day.Tue 30.1.2024 at 20.30Escalating Mideast Tensions
Is an all-out Regional War Inevitable? - Israel at War. Israeli and Western clashes with Iran’s proxies have persisted for nearly four months now. The Hamas attack on October 7 of last year launched a series of conflagrations on the Lebanese border with Israel, in the Red Sea and even in Iraq.Fri 26.1.2024 at 20.30
Besides the Gaza war, there have been exchanges of various kinds, including missiles, drones, and fighter planes. There appears to be an explosive potential for a more widespread conflict, an all-out regional war pitting the Iran-based axis against the forces of moderation. Can it be contained? And what would trigger the detonation?CENTCOM's Multi-Arena Challenges amid rising regional tensions
Israel At War. For the three decades prior to 2020 or so, the U.S. Central Command was indeed the center of the security universe. Desert Shield and Storm, Afghanistan, Iraq, Daesh were the most important missions the White House and Pentagon ran. Then came withdrawals, the projected pivot to the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, and Europe and China seemed uppermost. Now it seems that the pendulum has swung again, with Gaza, Lebanon, the Red Sea, Iraq and Iran’s Nuclear ambitions at center stage. What are CENTCOM’s challenges throughout its area of responsibility, as tensions keep rising in the Middle East?Tue 23.1.2024 at 20.30Prospects of regional conflagration
Geo-Strategic Assessment. Israel At War. Israeli Intelligence, its failure to warn ahead of the October 7 attack that Hamas will launch an offensive, correctly described a scenario in which Israel has to deal with simultaneous military challenges from several Iranian-directed fronts. It came to pass when Hezbollah, the Houthis and Syrian and Iraqi militias joined the fight, the latter also hitting American targets. For some 100-odd days, a vast regional conflagration was averted, but this could change in the coming days and weeks. Who are the players and what are the prospects?Fri 19.1.2024 at 20.30Escalating tensions in the Red Sea
Israel At War. What started last November in the Bab-el-Mandab straits as a curious sideshow for the Gaza war has become a global problem. The Houthis of Yemen, with their persistent attacks on vessels of all flags and destinations, disrupted shipping to such an extent that the logistical and economic impacts around the world are significant. The U.S. Navy has managed to protect its own forces and to help ships in distress, but the maritime coalition of concerned nations is defensive in nature, while an offensive action against land-based Houthi assets and leaders is obviously lacking from the multinational toolbox. Is there a path to resolving the Red Sea crisis without resorting to more forceful measures?Tue 16.1.2024 at 20.30Prospects of Israel's northern Front plunging into War
Israel At War. For the last three months Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces have been exchanging fire across Lebanon’s southern border and the Galillee’s northern frontier.Fri 12.1.2024 at 20.30The Israeli Air Force as Jerusalem’s Strategic Asset amid Regional Hostilities: Israel at War
Veterans of the IDF’s ground arm have consistently lobbied for more armour, infantry and artillery units and less reliance on the Israeli Air Force. Their call for sending ground divisions across the border, rather than relying upon fighter planes and UAV’s bombing targets from above, was finally answered in the Gaza War.Fri 29.12.2023 at 21.00
Nevertheless, the IAF does remain essential in this campaign; in targeting tunnels and headquarters, providing close air support to the troops below, deterring other enemies, intercepting missiles and UAVs, not to mention being the weapon of choice should Israel be forced to take the fight far from its own borders, namely from Iran to Yemen.
So is the IAF still as vital an asset to Israel’s defense as it has been in times past?Israel-Lebanon Escalation. Israel at War
For some eleven weeks now, Hezbollah and the IDF have been embroiled in a limited war of attrition along the Lebanese-Israeli border. Rockets, anti-tank missiles, mortar shells and UAV’s have been flying from north to south while fighter planes, helicopters, artillery and tanks have been returning fire in the opposite direction.Fri 22.12.2023 at 20.30
Hezbollah’s casualties, together with their affiliated Palestinian terrorists, outnumber Israel’s casualties ten to one. But with the danger of escalation into a full-scale war, Israeli officials have stepped up the volume and the severity of their threats to turn Beirut into a devastated copy of ruined Gaza.
Are these warnings effective, and will Hassan Nasrallah be deterred, even if his Iranian masters direct him to escalate further?The Middle East : Dissecting the Geo-Strategic Intricacies (Part 2) : Israel At War
As the year 2023 prepares to bid us farewell, the Middle East is left with the burden of one full-scale war, several smaller confrontations and the ever-present risk of regional conflagration. Israel battling Hamas, Hezbollah itching for a fight, threats to Red Sea shipping and of course the common Iranian denominator always at play. So how are global and regional powers handling these geo-strategic intricacies?Tue 19.12.2023 at 20.30The Middle East : Dissecting the Geo-Strategic Intricacies (Part 1) : Israel At War
As the year 2023 prepares to bid us farewell, the Middle East is left with the burden of one full-scale war, several smaller confrontations and the ever-present risk of regional conflagration. Israel battling Hamas, Hezbollah itching for a fight, threats to Red Sea shipping and of course the common Iranian denominator always at play. So how are global and regional powers handling these geo-strategic intricacies?Fri 15.12.2023 at 20.45Iran’s Nuclear Progress - Deepening ties with Russia
Israel at War. If Iran ever needed to divert the world’s attention away from its progress towards weapon-grade nuclear capability, this opportunity has been provided by the Israel Gaza war. However, the war is not risk-free for the Ayatollahs. An escalation on the Lebanese front could unleash an Israeli onslaught on Hezbollah and even serve as a springboard for attacking Iran itself. But meanwhile, behind the scenes, Iran’s fissile material keeps accumulating, cooperation with the IAEA remains minimal and it’s ties with Russia, being reliant on Iranian weapons for the Ukraine war, appear to be strengthening.Tue 12.12.2023 at 20.30Geo-Strategic Implications amid Israel’s War with Hamas
Israel at War. Two months into the Gaza War, launched by the savage Hamas attack on thousands of Israeli civilians, the Middle East is still absorbing all of the related geo-strategic implications, both those shaped by the war and those impacting on it. The very definition of the region’s boundaries and focal points requires an update. As per usual, the main players are the Levant, North Eastern Africa, the Persian Gulf and Turkey. However, the war has now ushered Yemen and the Bab al Mandan choke point onto center stage.Fri 8.12.2023 at 20.30- Tue 5.12.2023 at 20.30
Iran's regional proxy wars; Threats of Wider Escalation
Israel At War. Iran wants to have the best of both worlds - engaging its arch-enemies, Israel and the United States, in various forms of warfare, while not paying the price of doing so directly. The trick is of course finding proxies willing to put their people’s lives on the line for Tehran. Each of them has its own agenda, but together they add up to a regional strategy. With that in mind, could Hezbollah, the Houthi-dominated Ansar-Allah, Iraqi militias, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and others take part in a wider escalation?Fri 1.12.2023 at 20.30The Red Sea. Iran’s Proxy War vs Israel. Israel at War
The Threat of Piracy to Maritime Shipping. Two of the world’s maritime choke points are the Suez Canal and the Straits of Hormuz. Most shipping between the North and the South, the West and the East, utilizes this thoroughfare and therefore can be interfered with.Tue 28.11.2023 at 20.30
Between them there is the Red Sea, with the Bab el Mandeb gate whose potential closure threatens Israeli trade with Asia. Egypt has used its relative proximity in its conflict with Israel, and now the Houthis of Yemen, an Iranian proxy hostile to Israel, have been escalating their efforts to goad Israel into an additional front, first by launching missiles and drones and then by taking over a British-registered, Bahamas-flagged vehicle carrier partly owned by an Israeli tycoon. This belligerent action, threatening all shipping in this sensitive area, invites a reaction by Israel, the United States and essentially all nations concerned with maritime security.Iran’s Nuclear Program Rising Threat to Global Security. Israel at War
The massacre perpetrated by the Iran-backed Hamas murderers on October 7 and the war that ensued has effectively eclipsed what, up to several weeks ago, seemed to be the issue of most concern regarding the Islamic Republic’s behaviour … its climb, slowly but surely, towards a nuclear arsenal.Fri 24.11.2023 at 20.30Israel at war. Israel & the Arab world, a geo-strategic conundrum
Just a few days before Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel, the Jewish State and the leading Muslim nation of Saudi Arabia seemed on the verge of normalizing their relations. This would have been the culmination of a process which saw, three years ago, Gulf and North African governments unveiling the official secrecy of their ties with Israel, in what became known as the Abraham Accords. But with the October 7th massacre, the Israeli counter-offensive and the visible plight of Palestinian civilians, regimes friendly towards Israel panicked into a U-Turn, condemning it and cooling off the relationship. Will there be a revival of the Abraham Accords, and even an expansion towards Riyadh, once the war is over?Tue 21.11.2023 at 20.30Israel At War – Unveiling Iran’s nuclear file, amid regional escalation
One of the casualties of the Israel-Hamas Gaza war has been the effort to block Iran’s path towards Nuclear weapons. Whether through sanctions, threats or diplomacy, the danger of Iran breaking out and within weeks or even days converting its highly enriched Uranium into Nuclear warheads was relegated to the sidelines, with all eyes on the death and destruction caused by the Iranian-backed Islamist Palestinian organizations in a war raging for some six weeks now, with no end in sight and with another Iran-sponsored militia, (namely) Lebanon’s Hezbollah, conducting its own war of attrition with Israel. So has Iran managed to sneak under the watchful gaze of Western intelligence and get closer to its first Nuclear weapons? And how will the IAEA deal with it, as key member-states are siding with opposing combatants in the Mideast War?Fri 17.11.2023 at 20.30Israel At War – Geo-Strategic Assessment, Facing the Iranian threat
While Iran is not participating with its own forces in Israel’s war against Hamas, Tehran does not try to hide its role as the mastermind and treasurer behind the Islamist terror organizations in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East. It is obviously satisfied with the havoc unleashed by the October 7 massacre, but is now facing a counter-threat by a reinforced American force posture. Almost forgotten in this chaotic situation is Iran’s quest for nuclear power - and perhaps this is the cause rather than the result.Tue 14.11.2023 at 20.30Israel at War: Recounting the October 7th Massacre
As the Israel-Hamas war leaves behind its first month, and the effective missile defense positioned by the Israel Air Force manages to minimize civilian casualties within Israel’s borders, world attention is disproportionately focused on the plight of Palestinians caught in the crossfire in Gaza. It is convenient for outsiders to put aside the horrendous massacre and mass abduction which occurred on October 7. But they must not be filed away, as there are hundreds of hostages of all ages being cruelly held by Hamas and others in Gaza, and victims of the Hamas attack on that savage Sabbath are in the slow process of recovering from their physical and mental wounds.Fri 10.11.2023 at 20.30Israel At War - Geo-Strategic Assessment. Part 6
The Gaza War, which started by a barbaric attack on Israeli civilians, has expanded to involve regional actors as well as global powers. The United States has rushed forces, leaders and diplomats to the area. Russia and China responded by anti-American moves in the UN. Egypt, Turkey, Iran and Qatar all have a hand or two in the crisis, with a view both towards its resolution and to their positions once it is over. A Geo-strategic overview of the Mideast is thus in order.Tue 7.11.2023 at 20.30Israel At War - Geo-Strategic Assessment. Part 5
Israel’s intelligence community failed to focus on the intentions and preparations by the Islamist Hamas to launch the October 7th onslaught, which brought about the massacre of 1,400 mostly civilians. Nevertheless, it righty assessed that when any front in Israel’s half-dozen-or-so flares up, it will not stay isolated for long. Indeed, the Lebanese border almost immediately became an active front between the Iranian-proxy Hezbollah and the IDF, with an escalation increasingly probable and Iran possibly joining the war, too. Other attacks emanated from Syria and as far as Yemen. How is a multi-sector war different from a single-front one?Fri 3.11.2023 at 20.30Israel At War - Geo-Strategic Assessment. Part 4
All Israeli leaders, military and civilian, acknowledge that the operational and tactical considerations and constraints governing the Gaza war are subordinate to the strategic ones, having to do with global powers and regional interests. What are these strategic factors and are they enhancing Israel’s ability to employ force or inhibiting it?Tue 31.10.2023 at 20.30Israel At War - Geo-Strategic Assessment. Part 3
When the guns start roaring, diplomats usually go silent. The very fact of a violent clash means that more peaceful measures failed. But this time, as soon as Hamas attacked Israel, two and a half weeks ago, diplomatic efforts picked up steam, with heads of state and government, Ministers of Foreign Affairs and special emissaries rushing over to contain the flare-up and gain the release of hundreds of hostages. Does diplomacy have a chance in these stormy circumstances? Who, if anyone, may have the power, pay us check and persistence to bring about a Kissingerian conclusion to the crisis?Fri 27.10.2023 at 20.30Israel At War - Geo-Strategic Assessment. Part 2
The war between Hamas and Israel is not confined to these two parties. It has regional implications for Lebanon and Syria, Egypt and Jordan, and the repercussions do not stop there, with Great Power competition reflected in American military and diplomatic moves and in Russian and Chinese counter-moves. What is the geo-strategic dimension of the war which erupted on October 7? How is it helping shape the war and is the war going to have a significant impact on it?Tue 24.10.2023 at 20.30Israel At War - Geo-Strategic Assessment. Part 1
The war between Hamas and Israel is not confined to these two parties. It has regional implications for Lebanon and Syria, Egypt and Jordan, and the repercussions do not stop there, with Great Power competition reflected in American military and diplomatic moves and in Russian and Chinese counter-moves. What is the geo-strategic dimension of the war which erupted on October 7? How is it helping shape the war and is the war going to have a significant impact on it?Fri 20.10.2023 at 20.30Israel at War: Strategic Overview - International Support for Israel
As soon as the horrific nature and unbearable magnitude of the atrocities perpetrated by Hamas against Israeli civilians were grasped by governments and people around the world, the shock and empathy were translated into political and military backing by the United States and by expressions of support by several Western countries. But how solid is this stand going to prove when Israel makes good on its vow to exact an unprecedented revenge on Hamas in the densely populated Gaza Strip?Tue 17.10.2023 at 20.30Israel at War: Prospects of a Multi-Sector Conflagration - Strategic Assessment
Four days into the war Hamas launched against Israel, the basic premise underlying the deliberations at the IDF Tel Aviv underground Command Post often hosting Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant, is that more fronts will follow.Fri 13.10.2023 at 20.30Iran’s enhanced empowerment: Geo-strategic implications
On one topic, there has never been a difference between Iran under the Shah, Reza Pahlevi, and the Islamic Republic led by his enemies and successors. Regardless of regime and under whatever name, Persia was always proud of its pedigree as a power in a key region. It strove for dominance in the Gulf and competed with Iraq. When militarily strong nations emerged, such as Nasser’s Egypt in the 1960’s and against it Israel, Iran navigated around its interests so as to exploit potential alliances. Of course, its Nuclear ambitions gave it extra impetus. Now, however, Tehran’s geo-strategic position has seemingly been upgraded, with Russia’s problems in its Ukraine adventure forcing it to turn to Iran for help. Will this mark a permanent change in Iran’s status, along with its acceptance into BRICS, the grouping of non-Western nations?Tue 10.10.2023 at 20.30Prospects of Israel-Saudi normalization as part of a U.S.-Saudi Agreement
With every passing week, the prospects of Saudi-Israeli normalization seem to have a better chance of materializing. Jedda and Jerusalem, Riyadh and Tel Aviv are obviously engaged though not yet married, as terms have yet to be finalized. The three baskets are well known - Palestinian Peace Progress, an American Defense Umbrella and Nuclear infrastructure potentially leading to weapons to counter Iran’s. What are the roadblocks on each of these tracks, and is the process beyond the point of no return?Fri 6.10.2023 at 20.30Gaza escalation: What does Hamas want?
In the 16 years since the militant Islamic organization Hamas evicted the Palestinian Authority from the Gaza Strip and brought about a series of clashes with the Israel Defense Forces, very little happened between these two adversaries without Hamas causing it. On the rare occasions it did not, Hamas decided to let its junior partner and competitor, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, bear the brunt of Israeli retaliation. So when the relative quiet on the Gaza border was broken for several weeks, beginning in mid-September, with violent demonstrations, incendiary balloons and IEDs, the question which presented itself once again is why, to what end, and where could it lead.Tue 3.10.2023 at 20.30Israel-European relations amid global shifts
After its main benefactor, the United States, Israel has traditionally sought to have a solid relationship with Europe, the continent - or at least its Western and Central parts - and the idea, as represented by the European Union. For several decades, the embassy to the EU headquarters In Brussels was considered one of the most senior and coveted posts in the Israeli Foreign Service. But lately, there seems to have been a quiet downgrading in the importance Israel assigns to the European Institution. There is no peace process for the EU to take part in, Britain has exited and China and Russia demand more attention. So what is the state of play in the relationship between Jerusalem and Brussels, where NATO is also headquartered?Tue 26.9.2023 at 20.30Iran’s ballistic missile proliferation amid expiring UN restrictions
When the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) was established in the late 1980’s, it was intended as a self-restraining political mechanism agreed to by Western states so that they will not compete with each other in selling strategic systems to the Iran’s and Iraq’s of the world. Later, Russia joined MTCR too, but it is ignoring its obligations under it, now that the Ukraine adventure forced Moscow to rely on military imports. This is a great opportunity for Iran, which has a weak Air Force but an extensive array of missiles and drones. Iran has also been helped by the imminent expirations of UN sanctions on its ballistic missile activity, which China and Russia were not willing to extend.Fri 22.9.2023 at 20.30Prospects of Israel-Saudi normalization
On the most basic level, the much talked-about normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is already here. It is being considered publicly as a natural extension of Middle East realities, and rather than generating a violent Muslim, Arab or Palestinian reaction against Riyadh, as would have been feared years ago, it is now accepted as a given, with the difference between de-normalization and formalization depending on the price paid by the parties. With the latest chapter in this plot being written in the double corridor scheme announced last week in India and boldly mentioning Israel as a partner in a Saudi-sponsored transportation and energy deal, let’s explore the issue and ramifications.Tue 19.9.2023 at 20.30The Abraham Accords: Three Years Anniversary
Three years have passed since the signing of the American-brokered agreements between Israel and several Gulf and North Africa governments. While evoking the name of that ancient and original Patriarch, Abraham, could have been applied to all earlier Arab Israeli accords, the title here was an effective example of copywriting. What was mostly a security relationship expanded into a diplomatic, economic and touristic interchange. It is time to step back and take stock, a task in which we will be helped by two of the best experts around.Fri 15.9.2023 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear progress; Saudi Aspirations for a Nuclear Program
Under the Shah, Reza Pahlavi, Iran was the first Persian - or Arabian - Gulf nation to aspire for Nuclear weapons. Whether it wanted them for power or prestige, the Iranian ambition launched a race joined by Iraq under Saddam Hussein. With Iraq out for the last 20 years, and the Islamic Republic patiently pursuing its program, the new kid in the block is Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is negotiating with the United States for the supply of civilian Nuclear facilities, which could enable him to later turn to a military track. Where are these two lines of effort at, and what is the inter-relationship between them?Tue 12.9.2023 at 20.30Hezbollah-Hamas-PIJ preparing for a multi-sector war vs Israel
As early as 1964, Israel’s Arab enemies started to band together in order to gang upon the Jewish State. Each nation had its interests and designs, but they vowed to unite against a common target. Six decades later, this united anti-Israel front has been transformed into an Iranian-directed axis. In Lebanon, the Shi’ite Hezbollah, an Army more than a militia; In Gaza, two Sunni organizations, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, basically rivals but ready to cooperate in certain contingencies. The three are too weak to invade Israel, except on limited made-for-television raids, but their hundreds of thousands missiles and rockets threaten death and destruction. What are the prospects for such an unholy alliance attacking Israel and triggering harsh retaliation upon the hapless heads of Lebanese and Gazans?Fri 8.9.2023 at 20.30Israel-Gaza tensions on the rise; prospects of escalation
Israel used to have four so-called “confrontation states”, with whom it had intermittent clashes, from fire-fights to full-scale wars. With Egypt and Jordan at peace with it, only Syria and Lebanon are left of the original quartet, but a fifth, or currently third, has emerged: (namely) Gaza. Under Hamas rule for the last 16 years and with no Israeli military presence within its boundaries, Gaza is a constant threat to Israel, even when Hamas refrains from launching rockets from it and prefers to direct and incite terror from the West Bank and Lebanon. With the Netanyahu government unable to foil these attacks on Israelis, it is warning Hamas leaders on Gaza and elsewhere that they will be targeted for assassination. Should that happen, following a particularly grave terror act, escalation seems certain to ensue. Is that a forgone conclusion, what can be done about it and what would the parties gain and lose by a new round?Tue 5.9.2023 at 20.30Military’ Mideast deployment amid rising tension
Last month the Naval force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards conducted a military exercise off and on the coast of Abu Musa, one of three disputed islands strategically situated in the Straits of Hormuz. Iran unilaterally took possession of them some fifty years ago, but they are also claimed by the United Arab Emirates. In order to reassure the Emirates, as well as other Gulf countries, of American support against Iranian aggression, CENTCOM Commander General Eric Kurilla and NAVCENT Commander Vice Admiral Brad Cooper transited the Straits of Hormuz on board a guided-missile Destroyer, inspecting the potential Naval front and visiting friendly capitals along the Gulf. Is Iran spoiling for a fight, and what might happen should it get its wish?Fri 1.9.2023 at 20.30What Lies Ahead For Saudi Arabia?
Ever Since Ibn Saud reigned as the first King of Saudi Arabia, between the early 1930’s and the early 1950’s, the House of Saud was led by cautious, conservative and quite elderly Monarchs. They knew that the Kingdom was weak, prone to attacks by powerful and oil-thirsty neighbors and walking a fine line in its domestic policy vis-a-vis thousands of Royalty, officials who made the economy function and a less and less patient public. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman set out to break the paradigm. He is ambitious, energetic, and assertive to the point of brutality. His agenda now includes a Nuclear program and deeper involvement in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.Tue 29.8.2023 at 20.30Military deployments in Syria
Assessing the battlefield. Syria was once a proud sovereign country, hostile to the designs of stronger Arab nations such as Iraq and Egypt to gain control over it by inserting their military into its territory as part of alliances. But faced with a fight for survival, Bashar Assad invited Iranian troops, Hezbollah and other proxies and eventually the Russian military to help him gain the upper hand in the civil war. Meanwhile, American forces started operating in other parts of Syria against the Islamic State; and Turkey invaded the North in order to cordon-off the Kurdish underground. In recent months, with the war in Ukraine resetting Moscow’s focus, there have been changes in the deployments of most foreign forces in Syria. What happened and what are the projected trends?Tue 22.8.2023 at 20.30Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles
OPCW voices deep concerns. For the last 10 years Syria has been a Member-State of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and has undertaken obligations to get rid of all facilities and stockpiles of these horrendous means of destruction. The OPCW has a cumbersome mechanism of inquiries, fact-finding, investigations and reports. So while it was obvious to objective outside observers that the Assad regime had no qualms using gas on rebels and civilians alike, Damascus managed to get away with murderous attack, regardless of periodic inspections and protests. Following the most recent report by the OPCW Director-General, Spanish Ambassador Fernando Arias, what is the current status of suspected Syrian Chemical weapons?Fri 18.8.2023 at 20.30Rising U.S.- Russia tensions in Syria
Tensions are seemingly on an upward trajectory between Russia and the United States, with repeated incidents raising prospects of miscalculation that could escalate tensions further. And while tensions related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and provocative actions over the Black Sea; During today discussion we will aim to focus on whether Moscow and Washington are in-fact on a course of collision in Syria.Tue 15.8.2023 at 20.30Is a nuclear armed Iran inevitable?
The Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 1970, is reviewed every five years. Ahead of this scheduled event there are talks, called PrepCom (short for preparatory committee), between the states which took upon themselves the membership in this club. In this month’s Prepcom, the United States highlighted concerns regarding Russia, China and North Korea. When it turned to Tehran, it made do with an oblique reference, saying only that “questions concerning Iran’s nuclear program and safeguards compliance remain.” As we are interested in answers and not only questions, we wonder whether it means that both the Biden Administration and the IAEA have resigned themselves to the inevitability of a nuclear-armed Iran, or conversely, is a new deal committing Tehran to restraint in the offing.Fri 11.8.2023 at 20.30U.S.-Iran tensions: prospects of escalation
American policy in the Arabian Gulf is seemingly being conducted on two separate levels. Militarily, U.S. Air, Naval and Marine assets have deployed to the region with great fanfare, to defend shipping harassed by Iran and deter further aggression. Politically, there are persistent reports of a deal being negotiated between Washington and Tehran to contain the Islamic Republic’s Nuclear quest. Do these two trends contradict or complement each other? Who will cross the finish line first, defense or diplomacy?Tue 8.8.2023 at 20.30Israel-Lebanon: security situation assessmen
Lebanon has everything nature has bestowed on it - mountains, snow tops, forests, beaches - and almost nothing designed by humans. No functioning government, no healthy economy, no cohesive society. Regrettably, it does have something to show for its troubles: Hezbollah, which lately has once again been provoking Israel, threatening renewed escalation, with whoever is on duty in Beirut powerless to shape events. How serious is the security situation faced by Israel in its Northern border, and can it be taken care of without a radical downgrading in the power of the Iran-sponsored Shiite militia?Fri 4.8.2023 at 20.30Israel's contribution to Europe's Security
Until Russia invaded Ukraine, 16 months ago, Europe was quite complacent regarding military threats to its nations. The Continent’s focus was on terror, in its various manifestations, at home and abroad. Suddenly, tank battles, air strikes, missiles and infantry are waging fierce fights in urban centers and rural terrain, and Israel, with its proven strategic and operational experience, is much in demand for weapon systems and technology. What are the defensive and offensive contributions Israel can and does make to Europe’s security?Fri 30.6.2023 at 20.30Viability of U.S.-Iran “Understandings” to avert Nuclear Breakout
Eight years after the United States and Iran, along with a half-dozen other international parties, struck a deal to temporarily block Iran’s Nuclear program in return for the removal of heavy economic sanctions against it, a different deal aiming to ease the same problem seems on the verge of being adopted by Washington and Tehran. In the interim, of course, time did not stand still, and neither did the two sides, with the Trump Administration withdrawing from the JCPOA and the Islamic Republic countering by accumulating enriched Uranium and interfering with IAEA monitoring of its facilities. How viable is the reported substitute of an “understanding” rather than an agreement and on freezing the existing status rather than dismantling it? And once the final details emerge officially, will it have the necessary support back home?Tue 27.6.2023 at 20.30Israel’s preparedness for a Multi-Sector War
The State of Israel was almost extinguished at birth when invaded by all of its neighboring Arab countries, with only its Western boundary, the Mediterranean, free from this threat. As it established itself as a strong local power, Israel still feared having to fight on several fronts, splitting its precious assets. Indeed, this is what caused the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which started with a simultaneous offensive by Egypt and Syria, to be so dangerous and difficult for it to wage. Peace with Egypt and Jordan made a repeat of this scenario moot, but now looms again the specter of a multi-front war, in which Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and other armed groups will attack from several directions. Indeed, to help the IDF prepare for this contingency, it recently held a challenging drill, Exercise “Firm Hand”. So, is Israel ready to meet this threat?Fri 23.6.2023 at 21.00Infrastructure Sabotage - Could The Mideast Copy Europe
Earlier this month, a huge dam on the Dnipro river, in the Kherson region occupied by Russian forces in South-Eastern Ukraine, was blown up, flooding vast areas. Each side in the war predictably blamed the other, but the weight of motive and opportunity pointed to Russia, as it was in the process of hampering the imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive.Tue 20.6.2023 at 21.30U.S.-Saudi relations amid China’s growing MidEast’ influence
Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Saudi Arabia, last week, for three declared reasons - to make sure the anti-Islamic State coalition maintains its important function; to confer with the Gulf Cooperation Council and to improve the bilateral relationship between Washington and Riyadh. His trip took place imminently after his AIPAC speech, in which he indicated the possibility of further steps on the road to Saudi-Israeli normalization, but cautioned that this long-expected development will first have to meet certain conditions. Blinken’s visit was also held against the backdrop of diplomatic and commercial American competition with Russia and especially China, and though the Biden administration is vowing that there would be no Mideast vacuum to fill, as the U.S. moves its top priorities elsewhere, China seems to already take advantage of the regionally perceived readjustment of American attention.Tue 13.6.2023 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear progress
Do political considerations threaten IAEA scrutiny? The International Atomic Energy Agency, or at least its leadership if not necessarily its member-states, has in recent weeks adopted a conciliatory tone in its public approach toward Iran. The IAEA’s Director-General, Ambassador Rafael Grossi, is going out of his way to accept Iran’s explanations of suspicious military Nuclear activities as “plausible”. There is a questionable gap between what happens in the Uranium enrichment domain, where (according to the intelligence community) Iran has already enough for two bombs should it choose to break out and produce them, and in re-activation of monitoring equipment, where the host country is stalling rather than installing, and the willingness of the IAEA to take Tehran’s excuses at face value. So is the accounting technical, or political?Fri 9.6.2023 at 20.30Erdogan Re-elected
Domestic And Foreign implications For Turkiye. Recep Tayep Erdogan’s second-round Presidential election victory was neither a surprise nor a landslide. He was widely expected to win, yet almost half of the Turkish electorate showed its displeasure by voting for the opposition. Erdogan now has a renewed popular mandate, but he must navigate carefully the stormy seas of inflation and international relations. What courses is he going to chart for Türkiye, when he starts a term which may mark more than a quarter century in power for him?Tue 6.6.2023 at 20.30Syria Back in the Arab Fold
In the Middle East, as presumably almost anywhere else, nothing succeeds like success. Also, values have a very limited value. Syrian President Bashar Assad managed to survive a very difficult years of civil war, in which he practically converted a lot of his nominal sovereignty to a free hand for his sponsors from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Regardless of the price he has paid, Assad is still standing, and has now been grudgingly accepted back into the fold of Arab rulers, from Egypt to Saudi Arabia and Jordan to the Gulf. How is the regional system going to be realigned, based on this new reality? And, will Washington, which is trying to balance conflicting interests and policies in and around Syria, accept this new reality though it deviates from its declared wishes?Fri 2.6.2023 at 20.30Israel’s Aerial Superiority
When combatants either cannot or would not use their ground maneuver forces in a military campaign, and artillery is not precise enough for hitting targets where collateral damage is forbidden, there is only one tool available in the General Staff’s box – (namely) the Air Force. Offensively, by fighter-bombers, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles; defensively, by anti-missile systems; and through persistent and time-critical intelligence collection and mission overwatch, the Israel Air Force has proven itself as the go-to branch in the IDF. This is the popular view, and in order to find out whether it is also the professional one, let’s turn to two senior veterans of the IAF, one who dedicated his service to flying and one who was determined to intercept whoever and whatever was flying with unfriendly intentions.Tue 30.5.2023 at 20.30Operation Shield & Arrow: Recap, Lessons learned
After five days of exchanging blows, Israel and the minor but well-equipped Gaza-based organisation Palestinian Islamic Jihad stopped this particular round, another in a seemingly endless series. As expected, both sides issued self-serving claims of victory. Obviously, propaganda and politics aside, they each have different standards by which to measure their respective balances, as does the major force in Gaza, Hamas, but what are the more objective lessons learned from this confrontation, in the military and diplomatic realms?Tue 23.5.2023 at 20.30Post-election Turkey: What’s next?
We intended this conversation to be a post-election discussion, and it will indeed have this function, but it turned out that this will also have a pre-election dimension, as the two leading candidates will face each other in a run-off on the 28th of this month. Therefore, all lessons learned from President Erdogan’s performance, his failure to clear the 50 percent bar but may yet emerge victorious, must be seen as interim. Final judgment on Turkey’s domestic and foreign courses for the next term will have to wait for another chat, probably next month.Fri 19.5.2023 at 21.45Iran’s growing influence over Damascus; Regional implications
Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, visited Damascus last week for talks with his counterpart, Bashar Al-Assad. The main issues were economic, but the visit, the first since the Syrian civil war erupted a dozen years ago, also signaled Tehran’s growing influence over the Assad regime, secondary only to the Russian role in the war-torn country’s affairs. At the same time, Syrian and Iranian officials huddled with their Russian and Turkish colleagues, while moderate Arab nations met in Jordan to call for Syria’s readmission to the Arab League. Do all of these simultaneous contacts signal a general rapprochement between Tehran and most Arab capitals, or a more modest move to exploit the Syrian dependence for Iran’s benefit?Tue 16.5.2023 at 20.30Israel’s state of deterrence; Credible Military Threat vs adversaries
As a nation whose defense doctrine was based on keeping the smallest possible regular military force backed by Reserves to be mobilized in emergencies, Israel put a lot of stock in deterrence, hoping for wide intervals between wars. But deterrence has many levels and many target audiences, and Israel has in recent years struggled with updating and refining this notion as it confronts Palestinian terror, Hezbollah missiles and most especially the Iranian threat, both unconventional and conventional, and perhaps sub-conventional, too. Has Israel been able to develop a Credible Military Threat to counter these challenges, from cells in Nablus to centrifuges in Natanz?Fri 12.5.2023 at 20.30Naval Israel-U.S. cooperation amid rising maritime tensions
Bi-national boats beyond Bab-el-Mandeb. This could be a fitting headline for a groundbreaking, or in this case perhaps sea-breaking, activity undertaken in March but revealed only about a week ago. The Israel Navy and the U.S. Fifth Fleet linked up far away from Israel’s borders, more than two thousand kilometers South of Eilat, as vessels of these friendly navies performed mutually beneficial duties in a key maritime front between Asia - or more to the point, Arabia - and the continent of Africa. What does this further upgrade in the Israeli-American naval relationship mean for both parties and their posture against the common maritime threat emanating from the Islamic Republic of Iran?Tue 9.5.2023 at 20.30Russia’s bid to normalize Syria-Turkey relations
In late April, for the second time in four months, Russia convened a multi-party meeting of defense and intelligence chiefs attended by Syria and Turkey. This time, Iran also participated. The main item on the agenda has been the Turkish insistence on military presence within the territory of Northern Syria, in order to fight Kurdish separatists who are also resisting the Assad regime. Obviously, Russia wants the Syrian front to quiet down, with some economic benefits for Damascus, while it is occupied in the Ukraine war and strengthening its ties with Iran.Fri 5.5.2023 at 20.30The Arabian Gulf: Shifting Sands amid global developments
Whether you call it the Persian Gulf, as the Iranians see it from its Eastern Shore, or the Arabian Gulf, from a Western perspective, its waters have always been tense, with competing regional powers such as Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, lesser ones but still energy and economy powerhouses due to their oil wealth and world powers. But recently, calmer winds seem to be blowing in the Gulf, first with a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement helped by China and now the resumption of relations between Bahrain and Qatar, after a six-year break. Does it add up to a new and more peaceful phase in the unfolding history of the Gulf, or is it just a short pause before tensions resume?Tue 2.5.2023 at 20.30Sudan: Internal Discord, geopolitical implications
Sudan, a poor country strategically located south of Egypt, along the Nile and on the Red Sea, has in recent weeks descended into chaos and destruction, due to a conflict between two Generals who were supposed to share power. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s Armed Forces and General Dagalo’s Rapid Support Force have spared neither each other’s troops nor civilians caught in the crossfire. Foreigners, including diplomats, were evacuated or asked to stay out. Who are the internal and external elements involved in the deadly dispute, what are the implications for Israel and the entire region, and what are the prospects for a compromise?Fri 28.4.2023 at 20.30Memorial and Independence Days - Israeli Stoctaking at 75
Next week, the State of Israel will mark a day of mourning which at sundown will morph into a day of celebration - Memorial Day, then Independence Day. At 75, the Jewish State has reached a maturity which allows us to take stock and assess its position, both absolute and relative to where it has been and where it wishes to go. So what are the strengths and weaknesses in Israel’s military and security situation, what are the the chances and challenges, as it confronts the strategic outline close by on its borders, far away from them and indeed within them?Tue 25.4.2023 at 20.30Israel’s challenge of facing multi-sector threats
It has become a cliche to claim that Israel is facing simultaneous threats from several quarters, within it, on its boundaries with adjacent entities and territories and outside it. The challenges are always there, but most of the time they erupt serially rather than concurrently - and can be dealt with accordingly. In recent weeks, however, different threats seemed to materialize day after day and even on the same day, as if orchestrated by one central headquarters. Is that the reality, or mere coincidence, or perhaps some cascading influence?Tue 18.4.2023 at 20.30Israel’s northern front amid rising tensions
When Israel looks North, towards the two neighboring countries yet to sign peace agreements with the Jewish State, it also looks to East. That is, of course, because whatever happens in the frontlines with Syria and Lebanon is inspired and even directed by the Ayatollah regime in Tehran. That is why Israel takes a holistic approach to its Northern frontier, viewing attacks launched at its Galilee and Golan districts as part of the Iranian-Israeli confrontation. What, then, lies behind the recent conflagration North of the border?Fri 14.4.2023 at 20.30Rising U.S.-Iran tensions in the Mideast
The Biden Administration has tried to separate its policy towards Iran’s de-facto pursuit of military Nuclear capability from the other concerns it has with Tehran’s Mideast activities, as well as the brutal suppression of domestic dissent. While a revival of the so-called JCPOA (2015 nuclear program) is officially off the table, there are ongoing efforts to craft a compromise, including primarily through Qatari mediation. At the same time, the U.S. is denouncing the Russian-Iranian axis, and minimally retaliated in Syria against an IRGC Quds Force proxy which killed an American and wounded over a dozen others.Tue 11.4.2023 at 20.30Israel between two maritime fronts
Israel’s main coastline is on its West, facing the Mediterranean. Its Navy’s main adversary used to be Egypt’s, and in the four decades of peace between Cairo and Jerusalem, maritime challenges emanate chiefly from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, especially since the Sea turned out to offer an abundance of energy resources. Thus, the Israeli Navy’s main fleet-in-being is still operating out of the ports of Haifa and Ashdod. Yet, with Iran and its proxies threatening shipping and shore-based targets in the Persian Gulf, Bab-el-Mandeb and Red Sea areas, the Naval vessels out of the southern Israeli city of Eilat and their cooperation with Air Force and intelligence assets, as well as American and regional partners, have also been tasked with a major responsibility. Israel now has to balance its Naval activities between micro versions of a Sixth Fleet in the West and a Fifth Fleet in the South, which are joined by Egypt’s Suez Canal, which it is able to utilize for transit.Fri 7.4.2023 at 20.30Forty Years since the establishment of CENTCOM: Objectives for Mideast
When General Michael Erik Kurilla presented the annual posture statement for his combatant command to Congressional committees recently, he chose to open it by looking back to its history. It has been forty years since Central Command has been carved out of the long-established European and Pacific Commands. As Kurilla mentioned, the original threats in the 1980’s were Soviet and Iranian. Later, in two wars, Saddam Hussein was the arch-villain, with Osama bin Laden drawing the United States into a long involvement in Afghanistan. With the addition of Israel as a valuable partner to CENTCOM, and with Iran and Russia once again of main concern, what seems to lie ahead for CENTCOM?Tue 4.4.2023 at 20.30One year Anniversary to Operation Waves Breaker
To Israelis now immersed in the unfolding political-civil-judicial drama it may seem as if it all happened ages ago, but in fact it was last year, at about this time, that a wave of terror acts hit Israel’s cities. Armed infiltrators seemed to operate at will in population centers, with security forces rushing to the scenes and overpowering them, but with the damage to life and morale already done. The response devised by the military, police and Shabak internal security agency was Operation Waves Breaker, meant to hit the terror cells in their home turf. A year later, under new management, it is time to take stock and consider the gains and costs of this operation - has it been successful, is it still needed and what lessons can be learned from it.Fri 31.3.2023 at 20.30Israel’s challenges emanating from the Lebanese sector
For a decade and half, now, the conventional wisdom has been that following the clash with Hezbollah in summer 2006, Israel’s border with Lebanon was kept quiet due to the deterrence gained by the heavy blows inflicted by the IDF. This assessment was brought into question by a sudden terror act probably conceived in Beirut and executed through the border fence. Israel is now concerned that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, 41 years at the helm of the Lebanese Iranian-proxy, is spoiling for a new fight. Is it so, and what does it have to do with the chaotic domestic situation in Lebanon and the political and societal crisis in Israel?Tue 28.3.2023 at 20.30Ten years to Israel’s Campaign Between the Wars
It was either January or March of 2013, depending on whose definition, when Israel’s Air Force struck a target deep inside Syria, with no response from Damascus. This turned out to be the quiet start of what Israel called “the Campaign Between the Wars”, with the Hebrew acronym MABAM. Following hundreds of sorties, including near-weekly strikes against Iranian operatives and proxies, as well as Islamic State targets - it is time to take stock and ask whether MABAM was a success story? Is Israel better off for it? And, is it about to outlive its usefulness?Fri 24.3.2023 at 20.30The Iran-Saudi deal vs Israel’s regional integration
In the 1970’s, Iran was openly allied with the United States and less openly with Israel, and the Shah was tasked by Washington in helping Saudi Arabia from falling into the Soviet orbit. Decades later, Iran is hostile to Americans and Israelis alike and Saudi Arabia is openly allied with Washington against Iran and less openly with Jerusalem. And now a deal between Riyadh and Tehran, brokered by Beijing, which seems to have once again changed the contours of the Middle East. Is that really so? Has the American pivot to the Far East given China, as well as Russia, an opening in this region? And if this move is not merely tactical and reversible, should Israel be concerned or encouraged by it?Tue 21.3.2023 at 20.30Israel's external challenges amid internal strife
While Israel has been undergoing its internal struggle, external challenges have not receded. They may even have risen, as hostile forces were glad to watch the Jewish State and its defense establishment tear themselves apart. This was also the backdrop to successive visits by the highest military and civilian officials of the Pentagon, General Milley and Secretary Austin, with Iran and the Palestinian arena as always on the agenda but this time also the repercussions of the nation’s domestic tug-of-war.Tue 14.3.2023 at 20.30Can Israel rely on the West vs Iran?
In 1981 and 2007, Israel acted alone against Arab nuclear efforts. The strikes at the Iraqi and Syrian reactors were undertaken out of the blue and their limited nature helped convince Saddam Hussein and Bashar Assad to abstain from retaliation. This is not expected to be the case if Israel decides to send its Air Force to take out the Iranian Nuclear infrastructure. War is certain to ensue and spread to the Israeli rear, as well as to Gulf countries allied with the West. So if the task is beyond Israel’s means, can it trust friendly countries, headed by the United States, to help it defend against the Iranian response?Fri 10.3.2023 at 20.30Russia’s state of play in the Middle East amid the war in Ukraine
Up until a year ago, the Middle East seems to be Russia’s most pressing business. Ukraine was always in the background, but between 2014 and 2022 Syria seemed to occupy center stage, with Russian bases, units and operations bolstering the Assad regime while carrying out Moscow’s own missions. Now that Syria and perhaps the entire Mideast have been relegated to a secondary position, what are the implications for Russia’s relations with regional powers such as Israel, Iran and Turkey? How does the emergence of a Russian-Chinese axis actively competing with an American-led one impact the region?Tue 7.3.2023 at 20.30Military implications of Russia-Ukraine war for the Mideast
Each major war compels all defense establishments world-wide to reassess their priorities and doctrines. One does not have to be personally involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, directly in combat or indirectly in the supply of weapons, in order to be concerned with relevant lessons for one’s own challenges. So what do we know so far about the use of Armor, Airpower, missiles and all the other components of military forces, along with command ability, unit cohesion and additional non-material factors?Fri 3.3.2023 at 20.30Prospects of escalation amid elevated Israel-Palestinian tensions
The English-American poet T. S. Eliot famously wrote that “April is the cruelest month”. While the Middle East is the province of T. E. Lawrence rather than of T. S. Eliot, the next several weeks risk proving the poet right, this year, even starting a week before April, when Ramadan begins. During this time, Jews will celebrate Passover and Christians - Easter. Jerusalem could once again become a hotbed of conflict between worshipers, partly driven by politicians. This is on top of the rising tensions year-round between Israelis and Palestinians, and as the U.S. is trying a delicate diplomatic dance between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas, with each having serious domestic problems.Tue 28.2.2023 at 20.30Iran’s efforts to restart talks on JCPOA revival
The Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA), also referred to as the ‘2015 Nuclear deal’ with Iran, has been scrapped by the Trump administration almost five years ago. Since assuming office, the Biden Administration has not been able to resuscitated the agreement, despite obsessive efforts, as there was no meeting of the minds with the Islamic Republic hurriedly ratcheting-up its nuclear development far beyond civic application. The JCPOA seems to have been overtaken by events, by Iran drawn to the Russian-Chinese axis opposed to the US-led Western Camp and brutally oppressing its own citizens aspiring for freedom of tyranny. Yet while the deal is dormant, the European Union refuses to declare defeat and its High Representative for Foreign Affairs, who also serves as coordinator of the so-called JCPOA, is trying to find some acceptable formula. Can it be successful?Fri 24.2.2023 at 20.30Israel’s northern arena amid earthquake’ devastation
Forces of nature have taken center stage in Israel’s Northern border and beyond, where winter is always harsh and lack of energy supplies make conditions even more unforgiving. The earthquakes devastating parts of Turkey and Northern Syria showed the generous and skilled face of the Israel Defense Forces, whose search and rescue teams worked relentlessly to find, extricate and take care of survivors. But this tragedy may only delay a return to age-old conflicts, between Ankara and Kurdish separatists south of the border and between Israel and its hostile neighbors in Syria and Lebanon. What are we to expect, when winter turns into spring and things return to what passes in this region for normal?Tue 21.2.2023 at 20.30Israel’s path into Africa amid recent developments
When Africa emerged from its intense period of de-Colonization, in the late 1950’s and 1960’s, Israel was a most helpful nation assisting the emerging governments and societies to develop their agricultural and industrial resources. In return, Israel was the recipient of goodwill and some diplomatic support, but under Arab pressure, these relations proved too fragile. Now, however, when the Arab world gradually normalizes its attitude towards the Jewish State, countries such as Chad and Sudan no longer fear conducting their contacts with Jerusalem out in the open, including high-level visits. What are the prospects of Israel gaining, or re-gaining, further footholds in Africa?Tue 14.2.2023 at 20.30How credible is a Military Threat vs Iran’s nuclear program?
In its first two years in office, the Biden administration was seemingly reluctant to threaten Iran with military action, should diplomatic efforts to stop its progress toward nuclear weapons fail. Lately, however, out of obvious frustration at Tehran’s refusal to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA), American officials have gone back to using the phrase “everything is on the table”. Joint military exercises with Israel, such as the unprecedented Juniper Oak, and tabletop simulations of operations are supposed to bring home to the Ayatollah regime in Tehran the effectiveness of a massive strike, should one be decided-on in either Washington or Jerusalem, or both. How credible are such threats, and are the blunt American and Israeli messages getting through to Iranian decision makers?Fri 10.2.2023 at 20.30Operation Waves Breaker: status report
Last spring, Israel came under attack by a series of terror acts in population centers. The perpetrators usually came from Palestinian towns and villages in the Northern part of the West Bank, formally under the Palestinian Authority but in fact only lightly supervised by its security forces. The Israeli response was the ongoing Operation Waves Breaker, in which raids into hotbeds of terror planning and preparation brought about clashes and casualties. The political opposition to last year’s government is now in power in Jerusalem and is facing demands to make good on its pledge to run a more effective campaign to defeat and deter plots against helpless civilians. How successful is this campaign, and what would be the implications in Jerusalem, the West Bank, Gaza and Israel in general, if the result is an escalation rather than calm?Tue 7.2.2023 at 20.30Iran's race to nuclear weapon capabilities
When U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel earlier this week, one of his top agenda’ items was obviously Iran’s Nuclear program. Israeli officials have publicly claimed that they were successful in making the case against the Biden administration re-entering the JCPOA. Blinken argued that last fall the agreement was about to be revived, but that Iran has changed its mind, keeps working on accumulating fissile material, and the American response is having “everything on the table” - a reference to a military option should diplomacy fail.Fri 3.2.2023 at 20.30Making sense of Mideast alliances
Once upon a time, at the height of the Cold War, regional alliances were easily pictured. On one half of the court stood the United States, with Turkey as a NATO member, Iran as the guardian of the Persian Gulf and Israel as the strongest power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Also on this list - Jordan, Saudi Arabia and at times weak Lebanon. On the other side - the Soviet Union with the more radical Arab states, such as Iraq, Syria and South Yemen. Egypt moved towards the Western camp just as Iran moved out of it. That was then; But now it is much more difficult to freeze-frame the state of alliances in the Middle East. Israel is of course a stalwart American partner, and so is Egypt under the current regime, but can Turkey and Saudi Arabia be safely said to belong there? And are Iran and Syria friends with each other, or mere Russian clients? And what is China’s role in this game?Tue 31.1.2023 at 20.30The U.S.-Israel alliance amid global developments
Washington and Jerusalem have long had a two-tiered relationship, with an underlying third one - that of the ties between people based on values, culture and identity. At the top, the political echelons interact, and right now there seems to be a built-in tension between the Biden Administration and the Netanyahu government. Professionally, the channels between the military and intelligence services on both sides are extremely strong, but they are subject to political guidance from above. The global context is of course: the rise of China as a long-term factor and the almost year-long Ukraine war with its impact on Israel’s relations with Russia, with their Syrian and Iranian parameters. All that considered, where is the U.S.-Israel alliance headed, and are there obstacles on the road to that destination?Fri 27.1.2023 at 20.30Changing of Guard at IDF
In a smooth transition, so unlike the chaotic political scene, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi took over the Chief of General Staff position from his fellow Paratrooper Aviv Kochavi. All speakers in successive ceremonies in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv mentioned the Iranian threat as a top priority, but also mentioned what should be obvious but is not in 2023 Israel - the principle of unity of command, cabinet to defense minister to Chief of Staff. What does it all portend for Israel’s military under Halevi’s stewardship?Tue 24.1.2023 at 20.30Is Israel’s democracy under threat amid looming judicial reform?
After only three weeks in office, Israel’s government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is involved in a heated debate with its opponents in Parliament and the public. Justice Minister Yariv Levin, with Netanyahu’s backing, has unveiled an ambitious plan to redo the country’s judicial branch, moving its center of gravity from judges and legal advisors towards politicians. Levin argues that it is a necessary reform to fix an imbalance. In contrast, his critics warn that it will destroy Israel’s precious democracy. Regardless of the merits on either side, the conflict over the Levin plan threatens to tear Israel’s society apart. Can the gap be bridged?Fri 20.1.2023 at 20.30Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Vision of a new MidEast
Saudi Arabia’s Prime Minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, world-renowned with his own acronym MBS, has an ambitious program and only eight years remaining to implement it. MBS calls it “Vision 2030” and is marketing its main features in terms intended to appeal to Western decision-makers and publics. He talks about weaning the Kingdom’s economy of its dependence on oil, on social transformation, on Women’s participation and sustainability. The Saudid have also tried to attract global attention by signing Portugal’s soccer star, Cristiano Ronaldo, to a contract worth hundreds of million dollars. Diplomatically, Riyadh is dancing around between Washington and Beijing Jerusalem and Tehran. How successful is he, and what may lie ahead for him and his desert country?Tue 17.1.2023 at 20.30Israel’s Security Assessment amid developingregional threats
Early next week the Israel Defense Forces will have a significant event, the changing of the guard. Major General Herzi Halevi will be elevated in rank and position to Chief of General Staff, making him the top military commander in the nation, of course subject to civilian political directives. His investiture was planned months in advance, but in the interim Jerusalem saw a change of governments, so Halevi will report to a new Defense Minister, Prime Minister and Security Cabinet. This makes a fresh assessment of Israel’s conventional, unconventional and terror challenges all the more important, so that the new team, in suits and uniforms, will be up to speed and synchronise its approach to the various threats and opportunities. What are they and how will the Israeli leadership deal with them?Fri 13.1.2023 at 20.30The enhanced Russian-Iranian military relationship
With the war in Ukraine only several weeks away from its first anniversary, it has obviously become the most important issue for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He is going out of his way to salvage some part of his failed gamble on a clear victory. Putin is therefore now courting Iran, despite a lot of negative history between Moscow and Tehran, and the Russian military has become dependent on various kinds of Iranian weapons, most prominently drones. How deep are these relations, can they outlast the war and what impact are they having on the Russian policy vis-a-vis Iran’s Nuclear project?Tue 10.1.2023 at 20.30Prospects for 2023
There is very little profit for prophets, it they are careless enough to predict the immediate future - tomorrow, next week, next month. With that in mind, we are going to peer into the haze and snow of early 2023 in an effort to see the general outline of the year mostly ahead of us.Fri 6.1.2023 at 20.30Recap 2022
As we send 2022 to its time capsule, for future generations and aliens from outer space to look up, let’s try to recap its most important events, trends and figures.Fri 30.12.2022 at 20.45China’s growing influence over the Mideast
With the United States openly shifting its focus from the Middle East to the Far East, as a long term hot spot though right now Russia’s war on Ukraine is uppermost on decision-makers’ minds, China is given an opening to enhance its reach into if not over this region. Beijing is methodically following its multi-decade plan to flex its commercial, political and military muscels towards areas farther away from its homeland, including the Persian Gulf, the Levant and North Africa. How real is this effort, and what is the next in store for China’s Mideast policy?Tue 20.12.2022 at 20.30Israel’s Intelligence Assessment for 2023
All intelligence assessments must be taken with a spoonful of salt. Who, in either Israel or abroad, could have predicted a year ago that at the end of 2022 a new government would emerge in Jerusalem with an unprecedented make-up, personally and functionally. That said, the Israeli intelligence community has fulfilled its task of giving the cabinet, the appropriate Knesset committee ant the military command, its best estimate as to the priority list of threats dacing the Jewish State as it welcomes 2023.Fri 16.12.2022 at 20.30Egypt-Israel relations - a strategic overview
In one of his last official acts before vacating the office he held since Spring 2020, Defense Minister Benny Gantz went out of his way to praise Egypt as Israel’s peaceful neighbour and strategic partner. Gantz reacted furiously to a statement by a junior but crucial member of Benjamin Netanyahu’s emerging coalition, who insisted Egypt is an enemy of the Jewish State. What are the true dimensions of the Israeli-Egyptian relations, and should Cairo be concerned as it watches the Jerusalem political drama unfold?Tue 13.12.2022 at 20.30Israel-U.S. relations amid Jerusalem power-change
The Biden administration has put the incoming Netanyahu cabinet on notice - try to make good on the election campaign pledges of right-wing and religious parties, and bear the consequences in your relationship with Washington. Settlement activity, annexation, unjustified lethality and various other activities associated with a harder line toward Palestinians will put Netanyahu on a collision’ course with President Biden and his Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is emphasizing its ties with the Israel Defense Forces. So, can the relations between Americans and Israelis be professionally warm while politically cold?Fri 9.12.2022 at 20.30Israel under threat of terror
In late November, two explosions rocked the calm morning of Jerusalem. Charges were detonated at bus stops several kilometers apart, killing two Israelis and wounding eighteen others. Since then, additional acts of terror reoccurred claimed Israeli casualties. Meanwhile; the IDF, ISA (Shin Bet) and Border Police Special Operations units have entered into their ninth month of nightly counterterrorism activity under Operation Waves Breaker – with no end in sight.Tue 6.12.2022 at 20.30Turkey’s looming offensive into Syria
The lethal terror attack on civilians innocently walking down Istanbul’s Istiklal Street on November 13 was probably perpetrated by a Kurdish underground cell fighting Turkish rule over this ethnic group. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded by instructing air raids into Kurdish concentrations in both Northern Syria and Iraq, and announced that a cross-border ground offensive would follow, when conditions are most suitable. The Kurdish forces in Syria, who comprise the better part of the local inhabitants fighting with American support the remnants of the Islamic State, threatened to abstain from this campaign. Washington is thus once again trying to dissuade Ankara, in order to serve a higher strategic interest.Fri 2.12.2022 at 20.30Russia in mideast
Challenges to Moscow-Jerusalem relations. Until early this year, the most sensitive dimension in the relationship between Russia and Israel was the Syrian one. Moscow was determined to protect its foothold there, and therefore prop-up the Assad regime, while Jerusalem avoided friction with the Russians in order to keep fighting unrelenting efforts by Iran’s forces and proxies to entrench along Israel’s northern frontier. With the prolonged Ukraine war, Russian priorities changed, at least for the duration of the conflict. Now, Moscow needs Tehran for arms and munitions, and it also expects Israel to resist Kiev’s pressure to supply it with lethal military aid. What are the positions and prospects in this uneasy relationship?Tue 29.11.2022 at 20.30Israel-Turkey relations ahead of a new government in Jerusalem
Even before Designate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to translate his apparent victory in the Knesset elections into the formation of a government; President Erdogan congratulated him and expressed his wish to continue the positive trend in relations between Ankara and Jerusalem, which was initiated by the Turkish head of state after Netanyahu was ousted from power, last year. What does it mean for the state-to-state as well as the interpersonal relationship between the leaders?Tue 22.11.2022 at 20.30U.S. Mid-Term elections: Implications for the Middle East
The bi-annual cycle of American politics has passed its mid-term point and is barely posing for the holiday season. The bitterly fought Senate, House of Representatives and State elections did not provide for a clear winner in the contest between Democrats and Republicans.Fri 11.11.2022 at 20.30Israel’s Polls, Politics and Policy
When millions of Israelis went to the polls, they hoped to elect a Knesset which will be able to form a stable government and rid the country of the curse hovering over it for more than three years’ now. To analyze whether Jerusalem is expected to finally attain political stability?Tue 8.11.2022 at 20.30Syria and Hamas - a renewed alliance?
My enemy’s enemy is of course usually my friend in the Middle East, but sometimes it is more complicated. Ten years ago the Islamist Palestinian organization Hamas, based in Gaza, fell-out with the Assad regime in Syria, because Hamas officials assessed, like most intelligence agencies, that Bashar Assad is doomed to be swept from power. Late last month, with Assad still ruling Syria thanks to help by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah; Hamas returned to Damascus, conceding a reality in which both parties do not have a surplus of allies. Is there more than meets the eye in the Syria-Hamas story?Tue 1.11.2022 at 20.30Iran’s drones - a real threat to Ukraine or a pretext to gain Israeli support?
Two relatively new weapon systems have captured the public’s imagination since the beginning of this century - armed unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, and the missiles intended to intercept them. Because the drones are playing such a prominent role in the Ukraine war, especially with Russia assisted by Iran in this dimension, Ukraine has asked for Israel’s agreement to supply it with counter-drones systems. Israel is reluctant to do it, for both strategic and technological reasons. Do the Ukrainians really need Israel in this regard, or are they looking for symbolic rather than substantial help?Fri 28.10.2022 at 20.30Topic updated: The Unstable Situation in Iran.
It has been almost 44 years since Shah Reza Pahlevy and his regime were toppled in Iran, after which the Islamic Republic was established. Time enough for two generations of dis-illusioned youth to grow up and express their protests against a corrupt, incompetent, and cruel dictatorship. Except for those governments supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, the world is shocked by the brutal treatment of dissents, including teenagers, both male and female. The question, however, is whether the current wave of resistance can blossom into a concrete threat to the viability of Ayatollah Khomeini’s hold on power through his millions of thugs in various organizations.Tue 25.10.2022 at 20.30Tensions escalate: Jerusalem & the West Bank
For the last several months, terror activity emanating out of the West Bank and leaking into Israel’ proper generated manhunts and preventive operations by the Israel Defense Forces, leading to clashes with armed individuals and cells, especially in and around the cities of Nablus and Jenin. Further south, East Jerusalem is a hotbed of friction between residents and the police. How tense is the situation in these sectors, what is the Israeli government and security forces policy in handling it and could the sensitive time on the eve of the Parliamentary elections see a conflagration into full-scale raids on the scale of the 2002 Defensive Shield campaign?Fri 21.10.2022 at 20.30Saudi Arabia's alignment amid shifting sands
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has of late been consolidating his domestic power, in anticipation of succeeding to the throne when his elderly father, King Salman, dies, abdicates or is incapacitated. MBS, as he is universally known, added the position of Prime Minister to his title, and proceeded to deal a blow to the Biden Administration by allying the Oil Producing and Exporting Countries, which Saudi Arabia leads, with Russia in cutting petroleum production. The move is designed to raise the price of oil and politically hurt President Biden, against whom both MBS and Vladimir Putin bear grudges. So is it all personal, or strategic, and could the Saudis possibly form an axis with their sworn enemies, the Iranians, who are allied with the Russians in the Ukraine war, in Syria and beyond?Tue 18.10.2022 at 20.30Israel-Lebanon: Reaching an Agreement
The Arab-Israeli conflict has been known for tense negotiations, seemingly about to break down and lead to fighting between the parties, when at the last moment a compromise is suggested and a deal is struck. The bargaining between Lebanon and Israel on the demarcation of their maritime boundary is no exception. It had its ups and downs, but now, having gone down to the wire because of domestic factors in both Beirut and Jerusalem, the formula drafted by American mediator Amos Hochstein has been accepted by President Michel Aoun - north of the border - and Prime Minister Yair Lapid - to its south. Aoun’s term expires on the 31st of this month and Lapid faces an uphill re-election the next day. So is their administration’s approval of the Hochstein draft a done deal, or could it still be aborted, leading Israel and Hizballah to an armed clash?Fri 14.10.2022 at 20.30Israel’s upcoming elections: Jerusalem’s reins of power
On November 1, millions of Israelis will go to the polls and elect a new Knesset. Exactly how many millions, that is whether turnout is going to be high or low and on what sectors and population centers, could make or break the next Israeli coalition government to emerge three weeks from now, if there is no absolute deadlock, as has been the case several times over the last three years. What are the prospects for the outgoing incumbents, led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid, to protect their hold on power from a comeback by former Premier Binyamin Netanyahu, and will whoever gets to form a new government be able to stay at the helm for an entire four-year term? To ponder and predict, let’s turn to veteran observers of this serious game.Tue 11.10.2022 at 20.30IAEA investigations into Iran’s undeclared nuclear activity
As a member state of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran must declare its nuclear facilities and open them to inspection on demand. It has been doing that regarding many installations, but tried to hide an additional four. One of these has been levelled and sanitized. The IAEA insists on inspecting the other three, while Tehran denies that there are “any undeclared Nuclear materials and activities in Iran”, as the head of its Atomic Energy Commission put it last week in Vienna, pointedly speaking in the present tense. What can and should be done about the undeclared sites, and would this issue derail the prolonged talks about a renewed deal between Iran and essentially the rest of the world?Fri 7.10.2022 at 20.30The Russia-Ukraine war and its effects on the Middle East and Syria
More than seven months into Russia’s war in Ukraine, it is too early to see its end, but enough time has passed in order to learn preliminary strategic and military lessons. For us in the Middle East, it is especially important to apply these emerging lessons to our region in general and most particularly to Syria, where Russia has air and naval assets, out of which it reinforced its formations in Ukraine, and whose presence bolstering the Assad regime carries a constant risk of friction with the Israel Defense Forces.Tue 4.10.2022 at 20.30Israel’s economy amid global instability
Israel’s economy has surprisingly withstood the blows striking global commerce and finance in recent years, including Covid-19, uncertainty in the oil market and disruptions in supply chains. But can the Israeli economy thrive when the domestic political scene is perennially unstable and when individual households complain that they do not reap the fruits of macro-economic success?Tue 27.9.2022 at 20.30Hezbollah’s threat of dragging Israel-Lebanon into war
With Israel and Lebanon apparently close to reaching an agreement on dividing the spoils of the sea in the Eastern Mediterranean, across from their respective shores; the most tantalizing question is what does Hezbollah’s head, Hassan Nasrallah, have in mind when he keeps hurling threats at Israel. Is he really willing to risk dragging his country into a war certain to follow an attack south of the border or west into the gas exploration site, or is he only trying to take credit for Israeli concessions in a deal crucial for Lebanon’s economic survival?Fri 23.9.2022 at 20.30IDF rules of engagement in war on terror
All modern military forces face the dilemma of overkill capabilities. Armies and Air Forces are equipped to clash with their opposite numbers, and in great numbers, under conditions which give rise to indiscriminate targeting. Yet in fighting terrorists sheltered among civilians, hitting innocents is almost unavoidable but still carries a heavy price morally, professionally and diplomatically. The latest episode in this series featured American criticism of Israeli rules of engagement in the fight against Palestinian terror squads and a defiant response from Jerusalem.Tue 20.9.2022 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear program, prospects of JCPOA-2
In almost every culture one finds the equivalent of the old proverb, Hope for the best, Prepare for the worst, especially in matters of war and peace. It seems to fit the pendulum called the negotiations over the revival of the lapsed JCPOA. Is it on or is it off? And what does one make of the various moves in the Iranian Nuclear program and by the Biden Administration?Fri 16.9.2022 at 20.30Israel Defense Force: A New Commander in Chief
The appointment of a new Israel Defense Forces Chief of General Staff is a very important event in the life of this military organization. More than in most Western democracies, Israel’s top General Officer has a major impact on the nation’s policies and conduct. Major General Herzi Halevi, an experienced Paratroop and Intelligence military leader, has earlier this month been nominated to serve as Israel’s 23rd Ramatkal, or Chief of General Staff, taking over at the turn of the year. How significant is this transition, at a time of political turbulence within Israel and security challenges around it? With us to share their opinions on Halevi’s elevation to Ramatkal are two senior IDF veterans.Tue 13.9.2022 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear diplomacy. What’s expected next?
To deal or not to deal? That is still the question, as Iran seems to try to squeeze yet more concessions out of the Biden administration, which is obviously eager to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA, but can only go so far in the face of strong Congressional opposition to meeting voracious demands out of Tehran. Playing hard to get is of course a common negotiating tactic, but with the game long into stoppage time, there is growing doubt whether the Ayatollah regime in Tehran can make an ultimate decision - deal or no deal.Fri 9.9.2022 at 20.30Israel's Campaign Between the Wars vs Iran
Last October, it seemed that at long last Iraq was on the verge of having a some-what stable multi-confessional government, which will take care of the country’s domestic problems free of efforts by neighboring Iran to manipulate it. This was good news to the Biden administration, because it showed that even after the end of America’s military involvement, or because of it, a more democratic Iraq, which resists Iranian domination, could emerge. But these expectations were soon shattered, when personal ambitions of politicians with vested interests in a status quo overshadowed by Iranian-backed militias stifled the move towards majority rule. Now, there is no effective administration in Baghdad, Washington has a hands-off policy and ‘satisfied smiles’ are seen only in Tehran.Tue 6.9.2022 at 20.30The battle over Iraq amid Iran's unrelenting grip
Last October, it seemed that at long last Iraq was on the verge of having a some-what stable multi-confessional government, which will take care of the country’s domestic problems free of efforts by neighboring Iran to manipulate it. This was good news to the Biden administration, because it showed that even after the end of America’s military involvement, or because of it, a more democratic Iraq, which resists Iranian domination, could emerge. But these expectations were soon shattered, when personal ambitions of politicians with vested interests in a status quo overshadowed by Iranian-backed militias stifled the move towards majority rule. Now, there is no effective administration in Baghdad, Washington has a hands-off policy and ‘satisfied smiles’ are seen only in Tehran.Fri 2.9.2022 at 20.30Israel-Turkey: normalization of bilateral relations
As soon as Benjamin Netanyahu vacated the Prime Minister’s office, 14 months ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan moved to unfreeze Turkey’s relations with Israel. When Foreign Minister Yair Lapid failed to respond to Ankara’s advance, Erdogan outflanked him and found a warm welcome in Jerusalem’s non-Executive Presidency, eventually bringing around Lapid and the other Alternate Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett. Now another step up the ladder was marked, with Erdogan and Lapid announcing the return of the Ambassadors to the respective capitals, after a dozen year hiatus. Is it symbolic or substantial, and what’s ahead for the Turkish-Israeli relationship?Tue 30.8.2022 at 20.30Iran’s deliberate nuclear advances despite “Vienna talks”
Just like the status of “threshold nuclear weapon state”, to which Iran evidently aspires before the final dash towards the weapon itself, there is apparently a new phenomenon in global diplomacy - a threshold nuclear agreement. With the essentially revoked JCPOA ever closer to a revival but not across the finish line, Iran is surely but slowly advances towards a worrisome capability in several dimensions.Fri 26.8.2022 at 20.30Concerns over Israel’s northern front
Israel’s two Palestinian fronts, at its center in Jerusalem and the West Bank and in the Southwest in Gaza, have been relatively quiet over the last two weeks, save for the occasional terror attack or incident; but danger seems to lurk in the North – including in Syria, where Iran proactively seeks to entrench militarily, and Lebanon where the Iranian-proxy Hezbollah is determined to claim its position as the country’s arbiter. Which of the two are more severe – and are we to expect a possible conflict in the near to medium future?Tue 23.8.2022 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear deal: What’s next?
The haggling over the revival of the dormant JCPOA is over, at least according to the Biden administration. For the last five months, a formula has been on the table at the Vienna talks, and it is time for political decisions in Tehran and Washington. The Khomeini regime may wish to wait a little longer, for the mid-term elections in the United States, to make sure that Joe Biden is strong enough to carry through the deal in Congress and that Donald Trump is not coming back in 2025 to withdraw from the deal once again; but if so, recent developments may appear to work in Biden’s favor. Is this the calculus, as seen in American, Iranian and other eyes?Fri 19.8.2022 at 20.30The global war on Islamic terror
The recent focus on Russia’s war against Ukraine and China’s militant move against a perceived threat to the status quo in Taiwan reflected a reality envisioned several years ago in American defense planning - the world has reverted to a game of nations. States and governments, not movements and organizations, operate and interact. This is why the targeted killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman a-Zawahiri, in his Kabul apartment, which was less than a safehouse, seemed as a relic from a bygone era. But is that really so, has the campaign against Islamic terror in its various manifestations become a footnote to major headlines, or is it just that public attention has shifted elsewhere and the real war conducted by intelligence agencies and special forces goes on unrelentingly?Tue 16.8.2022 at 20.30- Tue 9.8.2022 at 20.30
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Turkey-Israel Cooperation versus Iranian terror
The old principle that a crisis is also an opportunity was validated last month when Israel learned that its citizens were actively being targeted by Iranian hit squads in the city of Istanbul. Close cooperation between Mossad and the Turkish Intelligence service MIT managed to foil several plots and bring about the arrest of perpetrators, either Iranian or local contract killers. Israeli leaders highlighted the role of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in overseeing the joint operation, as a backdrop to a declared wish to upgrade diplomatic relations to an Ambassadorial level.Fri 1.7.2022 at 20.30Washington’s MidEast Efforts and Aspirations
US President Joe Biden is scheduled to visit the Middle East next month for the first time in his term in office altho he has been to the region many times in the past. During his 4-day tour in Israel the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia the US leader will meet with a dozen regional leaders in an attempt to convince the world that he is balancing realpolitik with human rights managing crises with Iran - and in Yemen - and only updating the American posture in the Levant and the Gulf - rather than folding up the Stars and Stripes in the area. How successful can the Biden visit be?Fri 24.6.2022 at 20.30Lebanon: will political instability lead to war?
A month after its Parliamentary elections, Lebanon is still sinking into the abyss, with no political center to stabilise the turbulent system. No major group or coalition emerged. Many new members are unknown qualities with questionable loyalties. The economy is crashing and everyday life becomes ever harder to negotiate. How can Lebanon emerge out of this crisis and what are the military and energy implications for Israel?Tue 21.6.2022 at 20.30Israel's military preparedness post-Chariots of Fire
The Israel Defense Forces changes its top leader every four years. The current chief, Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi, is due to retire at the turn of the year, and is already preparing his end-of-tour’ report by testing his forces through a month-long exercise, (namely) Chariots of Fire, held not only in Israel but also above the Mediterranean, in the Red Sea and in a complex Special Forces simulation in Cyprus. Meanwhile, Israel’s military, security and police forces kept their counter-terror pressure on hotbeds of hostile activity in the West Bank and elsewhere. So while lessons learned in “Chariots of Fire” are being collected and digested, what is the net balance of Israel’s security in late-spring or early-summer of 2022?Tue 14.6.2022 at 20.30Turkey's security-related considerations for Syria & Iraq
The Kurdish minorities in several Middle Eastern countries have never been close to fulfilling their historical dream of creating a Kurdistan, which will inevitably mean cutting territories out of nations currently with sovereignty over them. But they keep trying, and by the same measure those nations are resisting Kurdish efforts. None more so than Turkey, which has often raided Kurdish enclaves in neighboring Syria and Iraq, in order to degrade the power of what it considers terror groups bent on striking within Turkey. Over the last two months President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered two such spring operations, first in Iraq and now in Syria. What are the aims and implications of these cross-border moves, and how are they impacting Ankara’s relationships with Moscow, Washington and regional capitals?Fri 10.6.2022 at 20.30Jerusalem’s political stability
In a week’s time, Israel will mark former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s first year out of power. His rivals have managed to hold together a unique Right-Center-Left coalition united on almost no issue save the determination to block Netanyahu’s return to the office he occupied for the preceding dozen years.Tue 7.6.2022 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear advances amid diplomatic deadlock
When U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley testified last week in a Senate committee on the Biden Administration’s policy, he expressed a rather pessimistic view of the prospects for reinvigorating the 2015 Nuclear agreement.Fri 3.6.2022 at 20.30Iran's domestic woes due to its malign priorities
The Islamic regime in Tehran does not derive its legitimacy and authority from popular support. It claims divine backing, but just in case - relies on brute force, through the Revolutionary Guards Corps and other military, security and police organizations.Tue 31.5.2022 at 20.30Gaza: An obstacle to regional stability
For the last seventeen years, Israel has been out of the Gaza District, having unilaterally left it under Palestinian rule. For fifteen of those years, Hamas has controlled this narrow territory and its two million inhabitants. And for eleven of those, the leader of Hamas, and therefore of Gaza, has been Yahia Sinwar, a devout Islamist operative which Israel released from jail in a prisoner exchange deal. While Hamas maneuvers carefully not to trigger another major Israeli operation against it - Sinwar has inspired terror attacks by individuals penetrating Israeli cities from the West Bank, and part of the frustrated public response was a call to renew the tactic of targeted killings, with chief focus on abruption Sinwar’s timeline. Has that helped de-escalate the tense situation, or only pushed Sinwar to show that he cares for the Palestinian and Muslim causes more than he does for his personal safety?Tue 24.5.2022 at 20.30The Damascus-Tehran link amid global developments
Earlier this month, the European Union convened in Brussels for a meeting of representatives of mostly Arab and European nations and organizations, along with the United States and Japan. The agenda had to do with the humanitarian situation in Syria and the country’s political future, as well as the determination to keep fighting Daesh, the Arabic acronym for ISIL. Nevertheless, absent from this conference were three major players in the deadly Syrian game - Russia, Iran and Israel. The complex relationship in this triangle, and its impact on Bashar Assad’s regime, is the topic of discussion for today’s program.Fri 20.5.2022 at 20.30US-Israel relations amid great power competition
U.S. President Joe Biden intends to visit Israel and the Palestinian Authority next month, in a show of support for their governments and for an internationally aspired two-state solution. However, the fragility of the Israeli ruling coalition, which is hanging by a thread, prevents any substantive progress on the Israel-Palestinian file – at a time when alternate arenas are seemingly prioritized over the decades old conflict. Moreover, Jerusalem is trying to harness the United States to its tougher anti-Iran policy, while the U.S. wishes Israel adopt a tougher line vis-a-vis Moscow in the Ukraine war, despite the Israeli need to avoid friction with Russia in Syria.Tue 17.5.2022 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear advances and regional implications
The Vienna talks on reviving the dormant Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action regarding Iran’s Nuclear ambitions have seemingly been on hold for several weeks now, with the parties closer than ever but unable to close the deal yet. It is complicated by two of the parties, Russia in the negotiating room and the United States in the corridor outside the door, being opponents in the Ukraine war, which evidently takes priority over all most everything else. Meanwhile, the Iranians are making measured moves toward a Nuclear weapons capability. They also maintain their aggressive policy throughout the Middle East, which Israel and other regional powers oppose, some with determination, others with frustration. What is then the net assessment of these Iran-centered efforts?Fri 13.5.2022 at 20.30Lebanon Pre-Election analysis
On the Fifteenth of this month Lebanese voters will elect a new Parliament. The one hundred twenty eight seats are allocated along confessional and geographical lines, with no party ever getting a majority and the government thus always based on complex coalitions. Lebanon is in pernanent crisis, economically and socially. Its ruling elite is corrupt. There are no independent security agenda and foreign policy, because of Hezbollah’s influence and therefore the competing interests of Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia.Tue 10.5.2022 at 20.30US-Iran standoff amid stalled nuclear talks
Seven years after Iran reached a Nuclear deal with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany and the European Union, the talks over a possible revival of the agreement are very close to the finish line, but are apparently stalled there. The major stumbling block is no longer the nuclear dimension itself, but rather, the Trump Administration’s decision to designate the Islamic Republic’s Revolutionary Guards Corps on the State Department’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations, which was subsequently accommodated by a long-list of crippling sanctions on its institutions and personnel. And while the Ayatollah regime demands that the Biden Administration delist the IRGC absent any reciprocal measures; pressure by the Pentagon, Congressional critics and Israel are reportedly bearing fruit. Will this issue prevent the renewal of the deal, or can a bypass be found, and soon, before Iran has too much highly-enriched Uranium?Tue 3.5.2022 at 20.30Tensions over sovereignty and freedom of worship
In the ever-explosive Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which to a great extent though not exclusively is regarded as a religious one between Jews and Arab-Muslims, Jerusalem is the most delicate component, always about to set off a detonation. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict routinely fails – most notably when the Holy Places are negotiated-on. The sensitivity was also apparent over the last several weeks quite close to TV7’s studio, with clashes on the Temple Mount and tensions spreading to other sectors, including Israel’s borders with Gaza and Lebanon. What’s in store for Jerusalem?Fri 29.4.2022 at 20.30Israel-Russia relations amid Ukraine war
The Russia-Israel relationship, which was favourable until the invasion of Ukraine, is now a minor casualty of this war, in which Jerusalem has no direct self-interest. At first, Israel tried to avoid taking a position, but American pressure to condemn Russia’s policy proved too much, and Moscow countered in kind. Diplomatically, verbal blows are exchanged, with the Russian Foreign Ministry singling out Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid for an “aggressive” statement and blaming him for trying to distract attention from “one of the oldest unsettled conflicts,” namely - the Israeli-Palestinian one. But on the military side, Israel has refrained from helping Ukraine and Russia kept its co-existence with the Israel Defense Forces in Syria. What does it all add up to?Tue 26.4.2022 at 20.30Israel’s political stability
The Israeli government has been in office for ten months and the next election is scheduled three and a half years from now, but it is teetering on the brink of political abyss with the defection of its own majority whip, a member of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Knesset faction. Because Israel’s legislators are on recess for the next several weeks, moves to unseat Bennett are in suspended animation, but his future seems bleak, though not downright doomed. So how will the political drama unfold when the Knesset is back in session after its holiday break?Tue 19.4.2022 at 20.30Israel’s war on terror
For several years now, while Israel’s domestic security situation was considered relatively good, with long periods of quiet punctured by few incidents and frequent reports of air strikes against hostile targets in neighbouring countries, Military Intelligence kept issuing a strategic alert regarding an outbreak of violence emanating from the West Bank, either because of internal Palestinian tensions or due to individual frustrations. Whatever the cause, the warning seems to have sensed it right, with a series of deadly attacks on civilians in major urban centres With fear turning to panic, Israel’s political and security leaders tried to go on the offensive, responding to a perceived wave of terror with Operation Waves Breaker, focusing on the Palestinian Authority district of Jenin.Fri 15.4.2022 at 20.30Yemen's domestic turmoil amid regional rivalries
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has unleashed a humanitarian crisis there, had also brought about an indirect effect far away. The war in Yemen, which is in its Eighth year, killed more civilians than the one in Ukraine, almost Nine Thousand, yet the poor population there is out of sight and out of mind. On a basic level, it is a civil war between Yemenites, but on another one it is fought between Saudi Arabia and Iran, whether through air strikes or the provision of drones and missiles. An inter-Yemeni dialogue was recently launched in Riyadh, but it is boycotted by the Iranian-backed Houthies, which the Biden administration failed in trying to placate. What is the state of lethal play in the battlefield and around the negotiating table?Tue 12.4.2022 at 20.30Iran: nuclear versus revolutionary aspirations
In its 43 years in power, the Islamic Revolutionary regime in Tehran had only two supreme leaders, Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamanei. They have both faced a similar dilemma, reconciling the top priority of survival for their structures built in order to control the country with their aspirations to export that version of Shiite revolution to all corners of the Middle East. The essence of this dilemma is the fate of the Iranian nuclear project. It was designed to give the outward push of the revolution an umbrella, but insisting on it endangers the very existence of the regime, while freezing it in an agreement would enable Khaminei and the Revolutionary Guards to fund their aggressive activities. What are the Iranians about to choose?Fri 8.4.2022 at 20.30Efforts to revive a Palestinian-Israel political process
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel last week for the second time during his watch as President Biden’s top diplomat, ten months after his first trip to Jerusalem. Last year, his mission was to help reach and preserve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, with Egyptian mediation. This time he celebrated Israel’s growing acceptance into the Middle East by Arab countries from the Gulf to North Africa. But what does that mean for the long-stalled peace process between Jerusalem and Ramallah? Is it going to stay dormant, because life can very well go on without it, or conversely, will it soon be restarted, in order to assure stability in this part of the region?Tue 5.4.2022 at 20.30Israel's security in the Cyber spher
The use of Cyber weapons, both defensive and offensive, is supposed to be a hallmark of modern war, supplementing and even supplanting traditional kinetic operations. Yet, in the Russia-Ukraine war, Cyber seems to have been in use less than expected, and if it accompanied the Russian invasion, had little impact - unless media manipulation is taken into account. Israel, too, has recently seen Cyber exchanges, such as an Iranian attempt to embarrass Mossad Director David Barnea. Is Israel’s Cyber shield strong enough to withstand attacks in wartime, or is it only a secondary front when planes are bombing and missiles are being launched?Tue 29.3.2022 at 20.30ussia-Ukraine war: Implications for the Mideast
As the Russia-Ukraine war marks its second month, there are various implications for countries outside the immediate vicinity of these combatants. In the Middle East, governments and militaries are watching the events and try to elicit early lessons, especially those that can be implemented locally and regionally. Professional insights regarding the forces and methods used. Diplomatic practices by Presidents Putin and Zelenskiy, other leaders and international organizations. And moral and societal trends emerging from the conflict.Fri 25.3.2022 at 20.30Turkey-Israel relations
President Yitzhak Herzog’s visit to Ankara earlier this month was an important milestone in a long road back to a sensible relationship between Israel and Turkey. There was a strategic love affair between the two nations in the 1990’s, but it turned into an acrimonious divorce after Tayep Recep Erdogan came to power. With new political and economic realities in the Levant and the Eastern Mediterranean, Erdogan’s initiative to warm the chilly relationship seems to have an initial success, but a lot still has to happen in order to translate words into deeds and ceremonies into policy.Tue 22.3.2022 at 20.30Iran's nuclear program: latest developments
A little over one thousand kilometres seperate Kiev from Vienna, but the two capitals recently seemed to be twin cities. What happened in the Ukraine war apparently loomed over the talks regarding Iran’s Nuclear program, with a final draft of abstinence-for-assistance ready to be signed but frozen due to Moscow’s demands to allow trade with Tehran, despite the economic measures taken against Russia in the Ukrainian context. While diplomacy waits its restart, the IAEA has made its peace with Iranian Atomic authorities, despite bitter Israeli opposition. What is the interplay between these teo dimensions of the Iranian issue?Fri 18.3.2022 at 20.30Eleven years to the Syria Conflict
March 15 is indeed the Ides of Mars in Syria. Mars, the God of War, descended on Syria on this date eleven years ago and has never left, though he is also busy in Ukraine and other places. For all of this time of a decade plus a year, Bashar Assad managed to cling to power, helped first by Hezbollah and Iran and since 2015 by Russia, too. Earlier this month, representatives of the United States, the UN and Arab and European countries called once again for a ceasefire, humanitarian measures to alleviate suffering, war crimes proceedings and above all a political power-sharing settlement, but there seems to be little progress, as Bashar and his sponsors insist on purging remaining pockets of resistance to the regime. Where do the various actors, including Israel, stand as they mark this sad anniversary?Tue 15.3.2022 at 20.30Regional security cooperation to contend with rising Iranian threats
Apart from the Nuclear file, Iran’s activities in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, compounded by maritime aggression in the Arabian Gulf and its vicinity, brought home to pro-Western regional governments the need for wider and deeper military and security cooperation. Two of the major lynchpins in this new array of forces are CENTCOM’s Fifth Fleet and the Israel Defense Forces’ Air Force and Navy.Tue 8.3.2022 at 20.30Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile advancements
Tensions between Russia and Western countries and international organizations such as the European Union over the war in Ukraine will certainly affect other issues, on which there was up-to-now common ground between the parties. A case in point is the Nuclear deal being essentially renegotiated in Vienna between Iran and the parties to the 2015 agreement. If Russia is now in a hostile stance towards the United States and its allies, it may tilt towards Iran regardless of the Islamic Republic’s steady accumulation of enriched fissile material and ballistic missile arsenal. What is the outline of these emerging trends and is Iran therefore a more dangerous threat than it was a month ago?Fri 4.3.2022 at 20.30Lebanon: state of affairs amid escalating rhetoric
Less than three months before general elections are to be held in Lebanon, the country is in turmoil, though not yet in one of its periodic civil wars. The most severe problem is the collapse of the economy, spreading misery to many walks of the population, though not to a corrupt and incompetent elite. The governor of the central bank is suspected of using his decades-old job as a sort of a political mafia accountant. Hezbollah ignores Lebanon’s interest in peace and quiet on its borders by provoking Israel. Lebanon’s Sunni leader Saad Hariri suspended his political career, leaving his followers at a disadvantage in the run-up to the elections, and there is no accountability for the devastating blast in Beirut in August 2020. What are we to make of the troubled Lebanese scene?Tue 1.3.2022 at 20.30Israel’s defensive preparedness amid rise of UAS threats
The Israel Air Force is widely recognized as one of the world’s best organizations of military aviation. It excels in air-to-air combat, air-to-ground strikes and surface-to-air intercepts, the last mission being assigned in the Israel Defense Forces to this branch rather than to the Army. Yet what has been a remarkable record against birds of prey is more questionable when mosquitoes buzz in. Last week, a small Unmanned Aerial System penetrated Israeli airspace from Lebanon and managed to safely sneak out back home after being chased by aircraft and air defense. Is that a serious hole in Israel’s wall, or merely an asterisk?Fri 25.2.2022 at 20.30The Russia-Ukraine crisis: Implications for the Middle East
However the Russia-Ukraine crisis unfolds, with its political and military dimensions, the Middle East is more than a curious bystander watching a tense face-off in the neighborhood. It will have significant implications for the relative power and influence of Russia and the United States. The value of alliances, formal ones such as NATO and less formal ad-hoc coalitions in Syria and elsewhere, will be tested. Governments from Beirut to Baghdad and Ankara to Amman will reassess their policies. So while the immediate turn of events is to risky to forecast in this forum, we will try to analyze the various outcomes should the crisis move in several alternatives directions.Tue 22.2.2022 at 20.30The battle against ISIS amid its resurgence
Earlier this month, the U.S. Special Forces Operation against the leader of Da’esh, or ISIL, Ibrahim Qurayshi, also known as Hajj Abdullah, was apparently successful on two levels. It removed from the scene a supreme commander who had a major role in the Islamic State’s efforts to regroup and once again take over parts of Syria. It also raised the possibility that Da’esh will not be able to function under a single authority of a so-called Caliph, but from now-on act in a decentralized fashion through its various geographical provinces. Is this the way ahead for an Islamist movement which several years ago terrorized large parts of Iraq and Syria, but was beaten back and lost its territorial conquests, though not its virtual hold on many Muslims in the Levant and elsewhere?Tue 15.2.2022 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear program: Final diplomatic stretch in Vienna?
The bargaining between the United States and Iran, whether formally and indirectly in Vienna or elsewhere and through other channels, is evidently approaching its endgame. The indicators include a waiver on sanctions related to nuclear work in Iranian facilities, reversing a Trump era policy and serving as a good will gesture on the part of the Biden administration. U.S. President Joe Biden himself talked with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, in what was obviously a preface to an announcement on a Vienna deal. Following this conversation, in which Biden accepted an invitation to Israel, Bennett’s national security advisor flew to Washington for talks with his counterpart.Fri 11.2.2022 at 20.30The battle over Yemen: Regional & Global implications
The war-torn country of Yemen is seen my analysts as a territory of limited strategic value with some ability to threaten vital shipping lanes in the adjacent Red Sea. And while local groups are vehemently fighting for control over this impoverished territory - the conflict is not only an internal one – rather – it is part of a regional struggle factoring-in Iran, Saudi Arabia and even Turkey.Tue 8.2.2022 at 20.30Israel's northern challenges and threats - security assessment
When Israel looks at its northern borders, it tends to view the neighbouring countries of Syria and Lebanon as one front with two sectors and half-dozen elements. There are the military forces under the control of Damascus and Beirut; the Shiite political movement and heavily armed militia Hezbollah; Iranian units and proxies; a resurgent Daesh; and the Russian presence in and above Southwestern Syria, with a deconflicting mechanism separating it from Israeli attacks against the others - mostly Iranian bases and weapons caches. This has been a relatively constant picture over the last several years, with some fluctuations. So can Israeli policy makers be satisfied, that all will be quiet on the Northern front for the foreseeable future?Fri 4.2.2022 at 20.30Turkey-Israel relations amid overtures for normalization
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has apparently made a strategic decision, to bury the hatchet and normalize Turkey’s relations with Israel. For the last several months, there have been small and symbolic signs of Erdogan’s willingness to chart a new course with the Bennett government, after a dozen years of tension with the one headed by Netanyahu. There were phone calls with senior Israeli officials; Erdogan praised Bennett’s “positive attitude” and his Foreign Minister wished his Israeli counterpart a speedy recovery from a light case of Covid. When and how will substance follow style?Tue 1.2.2022 at 20.30Iran's nuclear progress amid prolonged talks in Vienna
According to conventional wisdom, Washington is a one-crisis city, unable to effectively handle two major problems simultaneously. Perhaps this applies to the ongoing Iranian Nuclear effort, when the Biden administration is almost totally focused on the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The Vienna talks have been dragging on with no reported breakthrough, and the Iranians are slowly but systematically enriching Uranium to the fairly high level of 60 percent. If there is any overlap between the Ukraine crisis and the Iran negotiations, it has to do with news of an offer made by Washington via Moscow, and outright rejected by Tehran, regarding an intermediate agreement. So where are the parties to the Vienna talks headed?Fri 28.1.2022 at 21.15- Tue 25.1.2022 at 20.30
Israel-Jordan relations - geo-strategic analysis
Of the two neighboring Arab countries upholding their peace accords with Israel, Jordan is always of more concern to strategic planners in Tel Aviv and their Cabinet in Jerusalem. Egypt’s mainland is far away, across the Sinai Desert, and its regime seems relatively safe. But the Hashemite Kingdom has to contend with a Palestinian majority, cells of Jihadi groups, a vocal opposition to the economic policies of King Abdullah and security problems in nearby southern Syria. Israel has excellent working relations between its military and intelligence agencies and their Jordanian ones, and it has done its share to alleviate the chronic water problem arid Jordan suffers from, but there is constant fear west of the river that the Hashemite dynasty is just one bullet away from being toppled, leaving Israel vulnerable along its backbone. Can Israel bank on the East Bank to renain quiet?Tue 18.1.2022 at 20.30The Iranian nuclear file amid escalating tensions
Conflicting signals have been coming out of Vienna over the ladt couple of weeks, leading to the disappointing conclusion that a year into the administration of Joe Biden, who promised to undo Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the parties are closer to an agreement on a renewed formula but still have to bridge the gaps between them. Biden’s attention is focused elsewhere, especially on the Russia-Ukraine tension, and his spokespeople have taken to talking about measuring the deadline for Vienna not by the calendar but rather by quantities of enriched Uranium produced and stocked by Iran. In Israel, defense officials briefing their political superiors have adopted a tone of relative approval, supporting even a flawed deal over no deal. What are we to make of these clues?Fri 14.1.2022 at 20.30Israel’s challenges vs Iran amid presumed diplomatic concessions
Over the last few weeks, we have watched Iran practice an offensive military exercise focused against Israel. Iran fired rockets they claim can reach Israel and emphasized that Israel is the target. Yet as we speak, the diplomatic effort to arrive at an agreement with the Islamic regime of Iran about the nuclear issue is scheduled to continue in Vienna. What kind of concessions will be made to Iran as the world tries to curtail the Iranian nuclear program?Tue 11.1.2022 at 20.30Israel’s post conflict preparedness: analysis of the lessons learned
One of the biggest challenges facing any country is to learn the lessons from past conflicts and implement these lessons to better face the next confrontation. In the Israeli reality it seems the next conflict is never too far away. It could be against Hamas terror from the South or Hizballah terror from the North. We also are hearing as of late a growing clamor of voices about a possible direct violent confrontation against Iran’s Islamic regime.Fri 7.1.2022 at 20.30Projections for 2022 - strategic analysis
The Prophets are long gone from this city, and indeed from the entire ancient Kingdoms of Judea and Israel. We are left with mere mortals, trying to analyse actions and trends in order to predict at least the general outline of what may await us in 2022. We know that these programs are recorded for posterity, but we will nevertheless venture to offer our best fallible judgement.Tue 28.12.2021 at 20.30TV7 Annual review - 2021 Recap
As the year 2021 draws to its close, we will try to look back it from our regional perspective, in an effort to highlight its more salient and perhaps enduring features. This has of course been the second consecutive year impacted by Covid-19, but the pandemic did not freeze military and political developments in the Middle East and around it.Tue 21.12.2021 at 20.30What to be done if Iran nuclear talks fail?
The cliches have been used so many times that they have worn thin. All options on the table. All means at our disposal. Plan B. Other tools in our box. These are of course intended to signal, indicate and threaten without being direct about it. This is prose rather than poetry, because once a threat is issued, it has to be acted upon, which does not seem to be the case in the Iran Nuclear stand-off. So if diplomacy in Vienna fails, what measures can those nations and organizations concerned with Tehran’s militant posture take in the political, military and financial spheres?Tue 14.12.2021 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear progress amid talks in Vienna
The Seventh round of talks between an outsized Iranian delegation and those of six smaller ones representing Europe, China and Russia resumed earlier this week, with the American envoys in touch through the non-Iranian partners to the 2015 Nuclear deal. There are at least two levels to this round, the first one held during the Presidency of Ebrahim Raisi. In addition to what goes on in the negotiating room, with the exchanges of written drafts and spoken comments, there is the public soundtrack of claims and announcements by officials and media reports based on briefings by several parties. One of the main topics is Iran’s methodical climb up the enriched Uranium ladder, suggesting an ominous but not imminent narrowing of the gap towards weapon-grade fissile material. How advanced is this progress, and what does it mean in practical terms should the Iranian leadership decide to race towards Nuclear weapons?Fri 10.12.2021 at 20.30- Tue 7.12.2021 at 20.30
- Fri 3.12.2021 at 20.30
Israel-Turkey relations amid renewed dialogue
Soon after the current Israeli government entered office, more than five months ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to change course in the relations between Ankara and Jerusalem. He signaled it by calling Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog, who has no policy-making role, and at the same time cautiously checking whether key decisionmakers would be receptive to warming frozen political ties. That move did not seem to bear fruit, but when a couple of Israeli tourists were arrested on a mistaken suspicion of espionage, the scene was set for a gesture - reconnecting Turkey and Israel on the highest level. What are the probable implications of this event, which started innocently enough and was then turned into a new chapter in the turbulent history of Erdogan’s strategy vis-a-vis Israel?Tue 30.11.2021 at 20.30Iran's intentions ahead of revived JCPOA talks in Vienna
Next week, an Iranian delegation will rejoin the indirect talks with its American counterpart in Vienna, with the expressed aim of moving from proximity negotiations through European, Russian and Chinese mediators to face-to-face exchanges with the Special State Department Envoy for Iran Robert Malley and his team, where the exact formula regarding the mutual return to full compliance with the 2015 JCPOA will be drafted and sent to Washington and Tehran for approval. Ahead of these talks, Malley has been touring the region for consultations and briefings in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Israel. What is to be expected in Vienna and are the Iranians finally ready for serious negotiations, rather than for merely scoring diplomatic points while they blatantly continue to enrich more high-grade uranium?Tue 23.11.2021 at 20.30Syria's state of affairs amid foreign intervention
It was fifty-one years ago, this week, that Hafez Assad seized power in Damacus and launched his family’s rule over Syria. Following his own three decades as dictator, his son Bashar has clung to power now for twenty-one years, half of which contained a bloody civil war mixed with foreign interventions. With Russia, Turkey, the United States, Iran and Israel all involved in moves and operations, along with Kurds, various opposition groups and a beaten but not gone Islamic State, what is the state of affairs in this war-torn country?Fri 19.11.2021 at 20.30Iran’s Shadow War with Israel and the West
When a week ago or so Israeli media reported that Mossad foiled Iranian assassination and abduction plots in Africa, it was a reminder of the extent and persistence of the Shadow War waged between the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force and its Israeli and Western adversaries. It is definitely a mutual exchange of blows, played out in Syria, Iraq, the High Seas and numerous cities around the world, by units, squads, proxies, planes, missiles and drones. Up to now, these seemed more needle pricks than hammer blows, but if they cause excessive or collateral casualties, this war may leave the shadows and escalate out into the open, with spiraling attributions and retributions.Tue 16.11.2021 at 20.30Pending resumption of Iran nuclear talks in Vienna
With the Vienna talks between Iran and parties to the 2015 nuclear deal speaking on behalf of the United States set to resume later this month, it is time to take stock on two levels. First of all, literally, how much fissile material do the Iranians have on-hand as they shorten at least one path to a Nuclear arsenal. Secondly, how far apart in the negotiations are Washington and Tehran, as they race towards the end of this year and with the understanding that even a weakened Joe Biden is a better interlocutor for Ali Khamenei than a Republican Party headed by Donald Trump.Fri 12.11.2021 at 20.30Sudan: Post Coup Analysis
Sudan used to be the largest country in Africa, and a hundred times the size if Israel, until a decade ago South Sudan split from it, but it still has an enormous territory and occupies a strategic location next to Egypt, the Nile river and the maritime route from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea. Reason enough for its neighbours and other powers to be concerned by the military coup against the civilian half of the power-sharing arrangement in Khartoum set up two years ago and charged with a transition process towards democratic rule. Washington condemned the coup and froze 700 million dollars in aid, but some autocratic Arab leaders only went through the motions in criticizing General Burhan and his officers for ousting the cabinet headed by Prime Minister Hamdok. What is in the cards for Sudan, and what are the implications for the Middle East and Israel?Tue 9.11.2021 at 20.30Turkey’s regional and geo-political standing
The jury is still out on the relative success of President Recep Tayep Erdogan in his efforts to improve or at least maintain Turkey’s position in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Levant, going into the G-20 conference and its side talks in Rome last weekend. Apparently, Erdogan managed to avoid further friction and emerged from his meetings with Presidents Biden and Macron and other leaders with positive atmospherics, but on substance new agreements are yet to take shape. First aid is being administeted, in painful military and diplomatic situations, but no radical treatment leading to recovery has been outlined. So where does Turkey stand today vis-a-vis the United States, Russia, Syria and Greece, among other forces demanding Erdogan’s attention?Fri 5.11.2021 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear program: regional implications
When Rafael Mariano Grossi visited Washington, last month, for talks at the State Department and on Capitol Hill, the IAEA Director-General devoted only part of his presentation to the questionable future of the Iran Nuclear deal. North Korea and the climate crisis loomed equally large on his horizon. Perhaps that is because the Vienna-based agency’s portfolio is limited to fact finding, verification and monitoring. But that is too narrow a scope out of which to look at the Mideast regional implications, both conventional and non-conventional, of Iran’s nuclear activities.Tue 2.11.2021 at 20.30Eastern Mediterranean: tensions on the rise
Two less than friendly neighbours, Turkey and Greece, are at the core of stormy weather in the Eastern Mediterranean. Their disputes stem from geography, history and politics. The United States used to be their mutual benefactor and protector when several European countries faced a common Soviet threat, but 30 years after the end of the Cold War, the tensions between Ankara and Athens seem to outweigh their overlapping interests.Tue 26.10.2021 at 20.30Iran's strategic overview amid rising tensions
If one was tasked with coining a catchphrase to sum up Iran’s current nuclear policy, it may well be “stall and install”. The new government in Tehran, under President Ibrahim Raisi, is taking its sweet time in negotiating over prospects of negotiations - trying to squeeze American concessions as the price for drafting a renewed edition of the 2015 deal. While the world waits, the centrifuges keep rolling, racing toward enough fissile material for a single Atomic bomb. At the same time, there is an apparent trend in the region to acknowledge the reality of American military withdrawal, with a Saudi-Iranian dialogue conducted in a semi-secret channel. What does it all add up to?Fri 22.10.2021 at 20.30Iraq's post-election analysis
Iraqi voters went to the polls last week with no illusions regarding the impact results will bring to their life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, all of which are in short supply in the country formerly known as Mesopotamia. The low turnout was a self-fulfilling prophecy. Not much will change in the new Parliament, and coalition negotiations seem sure to drag-on for many weeks. But regardless of the make-up of the next government, one feature does suggest itself. Most Iraqis, while arguing about everything else, have had enough of foreign involvement in their affairs. Whether it is the Iranians or the Americans, Iraq wishes to handle its affairs on its own. Is it really the case, and if so what are the implications for Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem?Tue 19.10.2021 at 20.30The United States: Middle East interests & challenges
We here in the Middle East believe, indeed we know, that our region is the center of the Universe. But for the world’s leading power, it is an important theater yet not its top priority. The policy of United States is based on the idea that the over-riding factor in global relations for the next generation or so is the “strategic competition” between the U.S. and China, with Russia carving a niche of its own but more in line with Beijing. American strategy in the Levant and the Persian Gulf now leans towards less presence and more reliance on allies and partners. What does it mean to this neighborhood and in particular for Israel?Fri 15.10.2021 at 20.30Lebanon’s domestic woes & implications for Israel
Israel’s Northern neighbor, Lebanon, is powerless in more than one sense. While foreign Iranian influence and deep economic distress rooted in political corruption threatens the once termed Switzerland of the Middle East with plausible disintegration – such a reality would inevitably pose a grave security-risk for Israel.Tue 12.10.2021 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear program: prospects of JCPOA
The outgoing Director of Military Intelligence for the Israel Defense Forces, Major General Tamir Hayman, reiterated last week an assessment he made public at the turn of the year. General Hayman, who under the Israeli system is charged with over-all national assessment and not only the military one, insisted that Iran remains at least two years away from acquiring nuclear weapons and is yet to decide on such action. It is careful to make progress on certain routes, notably research and development and accumulating highly enriched Uranium, but not on others. Based on this assumption; A plausible interpretation is that Iran wants to improve its position in a revived - and revised - Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action, a new Nuclear deal with the United States and other world powers. Are we about to see these talks launched, and what is to be expected in them?Fri 8.10.2021 at 20.30Israel and the Arab world – Challenges & Opportunities
Strategic interests and personal relationships are mixed in international strategy and diplomacy. After almost four months in power, the Israeli government seems to enjoy from both in its dealings with the major Arab countries bordering it. Egypt and Jordan warmed up to Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, who are seemingly on the same page regarding Israel’s security needs. It is important to stress that while outstanding disputes pertaining to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict challenge Jerusalem’s keen aspiration to normalize relations with additional Arab states; the common threat posed to the Jewish State and the Sunni-Arab world by the revolutionary’ Shi’ite Islamic Republic of Iran – serves as a trigger to what appears to turn into inevitable Jewish-Arab reproachment.Tue 5.10.2021 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear aspirations
With speeches by the Presidents of both the U.S. and Iran in the UN General Assembly behind them, Washington and Tehran are deploying their diplomats to prepare for the next and perhaps most fruitful round of their indirect talks in Vienna. Rousing rhetoric aside, Ebrahim Raisi and his Foreign Minister sounded as if their Supreme Leader directed them to resume the negotiations, though not necessarily to make meaningful concessions in them. For his part, Joe Biden kept a conciliatory tone, while insisting on Iran’s full compliance with commitments undertaken six years ago. In Israel, two distinct views are heard - the more militant by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett; and a moderate one by the Defense and Foreign Ministers, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid.Fri 1.10.2021 at 20.30Turkey's regional opportunities and challenges
In almost 19 years in power, top of the political longevity table with Vladimir Putin, Bashar Assad and King Abdullah of Jordan, Recep Tayep Erdogan has made himself an important player on the regional and even global political scenes. Erdogan’s Turkey is certainly not taken for granted. In the Mediterranean, in Syria, in Central Asia conflicts, in Europe’s migration headache, even in the evacuation from Kabul, Turkey’s role was notable, though not always received with critical acclaim. But where has Erdogan’s trajectory taken Turkey? How is his Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean policy intended to meet current challenges and exploit emerging opportunities?Tue 28.9.2021 at 20.30Israel's southern security challenges
Israel’s Southern half, the Negev, is a triangle bordering Egypt and Jordan and reaching down to the Red Sea. The 1948 War actually ended only the next year, when Israeli forces reached what is now the port city of Eilat. Four additional wars were fought at least partly over Sinai and the Straits of Tiran, the Red Sea’s choke point. In the 40 years of peace between Israel and Egypt and almost 30 of Jordan’s peace with Israel, this area seemed to lose its claim to priority in Israel’s security concerns, but this proved as misleading. Gaza is a constant thorn in Israel’s side. Sinai is a launching pad for Jihadists. Iran has made even remote peninsular and maritime sites, such as Yemen, East Africa and the Bal el Mandab choke point, potential fronts in its campaign against Israel. What are the Israeli responses to these challenges, through defense and diplomacy?Tue 21.9.2021 at 20.30Iran's nuclear program - prospects of Israeli action
When a nation fears that its enemy is developing the ultimate weapon and may threaten to use it, a military strike intended to destroy this project is not unthinkable. Indeed, Iran set this precedent roughly 41 years ago, when it unsuccessfully sent its Air Force to bomb the Iraqi Nuclear reactor. A few months later, Israel did it, with a totally different result, and in 2007 repeated this operation against the North Korean reactor secretly built in Syria. It is logical to assume that if Iran persists in accumulating the necessary tools and material needed for nuclear warheads, Israel would try to pre-empt it. But with international conditions what they are, is Israeli military action a real prospect, or just an option talked about in order to give more weight to American diplomacy?Fri 17.9.2021 at 20.30Russia’s Mideast interests & challenges
In twenty years as Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin established his reputation as a major figure on the global scene and brought his country back from its dismal appearance during Boris Yeltsin’s reign. An important part of his agenda had to do with a pro-active foreign policy backed by military force, from Georgia to the Ukraine and onward to Syria. But next week Putin’s political party, United Russia, will be tested in elections - and according to public opinion polls is expected to get a smaller slice of the country’s Parliamentary pie. Russian voters may long for the real or imagined glory days of the Soviet Union, but they seem more interested in their economy and domestic issues than in Putin’s power plays in the Mideast and elsewhere. What does it mean for the next Russian moves in the Middle East? An advance, a retreat or more of the same?Tue 14.9.2021 at 20.30Israel’s northern front amid Iranian entrenchment
Every so often there are reports of aerial strikes in Syria, which the Damascus regime attributes responsibility for - to Jerusalem. Less frequently, purported Israeli action involves surface-to-surface missiles rather than aircraft, because the targets are presumably closer to the Golan Heights armistice border-line. But whatever the tool utilized; the reality is clear. Iran, without whose help Syrian president Bashar Assad could not survive a decade of domestic conflict, is being compensated by exploiting Syrian territory to position its own ‘Quds Force’ assets as well as proxies against Israel. These launching pads, intelligence outposts and munitions depots are immediately added to the Israeli Air Force target-bank.Fri 10.9.2021 at 20.30China’s pivot Westward amid Great-Power competition
Admiral Charles Richard, who heads the United States Strategic Command, sounded a relatively new alarm the other week. He warned that the entire structure of global stability, which rests on nuclear deterrence between the U.S. and Russia, could be undermined by the emergence of China as America’s peer. Of course, the view from Beijing is quite different - an economic powerhouse wishing to fulfil its potential by moving West, through its Road and Belt Initiative. Without judging which of these perspectives is more to the point, can there be a meeting of the minds on this issue?Tue 7.9.2021 at 20.30Israel’s global efforts to confront Iran
While most eyes have been on Afghanistan lately, it is her neighbor to the west which concerns Israel on several fronts. The nuclear project, the military presence in Syria by its own Quds Force as well as proxies and militias, its precision munitions supply to Hezbollah and the maritime blows it absorbs and tries to land. This was a major topic in Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s meeting with President Joe Biden, last week, as Israel is trying to shore up a global coalition against Iranian actions. How successful is it, so far?Fri 3.9.2021 at 20.30Afghanistan: Regional & Global Implications
Twenty years after it first set foot in Afghanistan, by its Special Forces linking up with the local Northern Alliance, the United States is withdrawing from this war-torn, land-locked Asian nation, leaving it at the mercy of the Mujahedeen, or Islamist Taliban, which swept its way back into power. Regardless of the wisdom or even inevitability of the decision to cut and leave, the images of desperate Afghanis clinging to U.S. Air Force C17 transport Aircraft taking off at Kabul airport have sent a clear message of an American retreat. What repercussions are now expected, regionally and globally?Tue 31.8.2021 at 20.30Iran's nuclear program amid IAEA warnings
The International Atomic Energy Agency is not a party to the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and deven world powers, but it has a significant role in monitoring compliance and reporting its findings. Over the last two years, ever since the Trump Administration withdrew from the deal and Iran reciprocated by violating several of its provisions, the IAEA has issued a series of reports citing Iran’s progress on the road to accumulate enough fissile material to produce a nuclear weapon. In its latest report, the Vienna-based agency warned that Iran is enriching Uranium to 20 percent in a certain alarming dimension and 60 percent on another, far beyond the 3.56 percent stipulated in the deal.Fri 27.8.2021 at 20.30US-Israel relations amid pivot
The over-all strategic decision in Washington, at least from former President Barack Obama through his successor Donald Trump and now back to the Democrats with Joe Biden, has been to consider China its Number One threat and primarily invest in preparing to meet this challenge. This decision has military, diplomatic and budgetary implications, including both a withdrawal and a draw-down of forces from less crucial theaters, such as the Middle East.Tue 24.8.2021 at 20.30Israel’s maritime domain amid security challenges
Israel has two major maritime fronts, as well as secondary-ones (such as) the Sea of Galilee - which used to border Syria- and the Dead Sea, which Israel shares with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. However, the two main bodies of water of concern to Israel are of course the Mediterranean and the Red Sea and its southern approaches, all the way to Bab-el-Mandeb and beyond.Fri 20.8.2021 at 20.30The battle against Islamic terror
Next month the world will mark the twentieth anniversary of nine-eleven, the most momentous event of this century, so far. This simultaneous attack on American targets massacred almost three thousand innocent victims and caused two military conflicts, in Afghanistan and Iraq, which in one way or another still persist. This was the most blatant example of Islamic terror, perpetrated by non-state actors, in this case Al Qaeda and in others the Islamic State, alongside a long list of other groups. If there is terror in the world today, its Islamic variant is not alone in spreading its evil, but it is surely the most abundant and dangerous.Tue 17.8.2021 at 20.30Iran’s new appointed regime’s policies
With new Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi as head of the government, though not of the Islamic Revolutionary regime headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran no longer has an excuse to delay crucial decisions. It has to take care of severe economic and social problems, to choose between further maritime attacks sure to bring about retaliation and a de-facto ceasefire on the seas, and perhaps most importantly - to play its endgame in the Vienna talks about the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal in exchange for badly needed sanctions relief. How is Raisi going to navigate these minefields?Fri 13.8.2021 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear aspirations and activities
Iran’s quest for the power that comes with the possession of a nuclear arsenal takes place inside a paradox. The Islamic Republic knows full well that it is suspected of edging towards military nuclear potential, and once it is implicated or even suspected of reaching its goal, those nations feeling threatened will strike in order to nip it in the bud. One reason, therefore, that what the Iranians really want is to profit by refusing to give up this quest and gain benefits and concessions in exchange for limiting it by re-activating the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action. As new President Raisi starts his term, the question is thus what is the state of play between Tehran, Washington, Jerusalem and Vienna, where the JCPOA renewal and reinforcement talks are held.Tue 10.8.2021 at 20.30Israel’s state of security amid regional developments
After some 50 days in power, the Israeli government headed by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz, must contend with old yet intensifying challenging to the country’s north and east – amid shifting sands throughout the region.Fri 6.8.2021 at 20.30Regional Status Report
As we are about to embark on a short summer broadcast-break, it seems like a good time to look around - obviously with Jerusalem as the center of our universe - for some regional stock-taking. Midway through 2021, with new leaders elected in relevant capitals such as Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem – amid looming prospects of the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which seemingly (in tandem) escalates tensions on the ground in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen – among other relevant sectors of interest.Fri 2.7.2021 at 20.30The Eastern Mediterranean - Israel’s challenges & opportunities
One of several constants in Israel’s foreign, economic, and defense interests and policies has to do with its immediate maritime neighborhood; the Eastern Mediterranean. All of its Arab neighbors, save Jordan, are coastal countries and thus have Territorial Waters and Exclusive Economic Zones from which to extract energy resources. Israel’s one gaz derricks are vulnerable to attacks by Hezbollah and Hamas. It has to navigate between Turkey, Greece and Cyprus and wants to strengthen its ties to Egypt, Italy and France. Israel is also mindful of events in Libya, which relate to Russia’s Mediterranean push centered on Syria. A lot of circumstances to take care of in this body of water impacting mankind since time immemorial. So how does the new Israeli government intend to frame and pursue its strategy in the Eastern Med?Tue 29.6.2021 at 20.30Gaza: State of Affairs, interests and challenges
More than a month after Operation Guardian Of The Walls ended, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has not been stabilized. No mechanism has been established for rebuilding the structures and streets destroyed in Gaza during the recent fighting. The monthly infusion of cash from Qatar was frozen, pending the verification that it only be used for salaries and civilian projects; not for Hamas preparations for the next round of hostilities. Within the Hamas leadership, Yahia Sinwar’s power is less secure than it used to be. What does it all mean to the new team at the helm in Jerusalem?Fri 25.6.2021 at 21.15Israel-Europe relations: overview amid latest developments
Israel has a new Prime Minister, a new Foreign Minister, who is the Prime Minister’s political co-equal, and a hold-over Defense Minister. This is the core group within the decision-making cabinet, out of which strategic directives are to be expected. As always, Israeli defense and foreign policy is U.S.-centric, but special attention is given to Europe, both regarding bi-lateral relations with its various capitals and the continental frameworks; namely the European Union and the 28-strong membership of NATO along with North America. What is the state of play in the European-Israeli arena, and what moves are to be expected in the months ahead?Tue 22.6.2021 at 20.30Jerusalem's political horizon amid regional challenges
Israel’s Twenty-Fourth Knesset has finally gotten down to real work this week by voting into office the nation’s Thirty-Sixth government. The obvious expectation is thus that during the tenure of this Parliament, there will be another half a government and that the fresh Bennett-Lapid arrangement will not hold up for the duration. There will be primarily internal pressures, but the government could also face external challenges on several fronts - Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank; a combination of some or all of these, alongside potentially new adversaries to contend with.Fri 18.6.2021 at 20.30Israel’s state of security amid regional developments
The world and the Middle East have followed with interest and curiosity, the political drama unfolding in Israel, but no factor or actor stood still until the parties in the Knesset made up their minds regarding the country’s governmental fate. The same forces impacting Israel’s security problems and policies are still here. The Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran with its nuclear quest and the forces and proxies it is deploying in Syria and elsewhere. The American gradual withdrawal from the area and the Russian and Chinese advance into it. How does Israel under new management intend to face this complex security situation?Tue 15.6.2021 at 20.30Israel’s new government: prospects & challenges
On Israel’s 73rd year history, no government has ever had to work harder to get to the starting line, but two and a half years after the political crisis began, and two and a half months since the latest elections, the Bennett-Lapid government is on the launching pad. It brings together under one roof improbable partners, Left and Right, religious and secular, Jews and Arabs. And while this government’s declared aspiration to unseat Netanyahu is pending a confidence vote in parliament next week, on Sunday – it remains to be seen whether this iota remains enough to keep the ideologically diverse coalition glued together for the long-hall.Fri 11.6.2021 at 20.30The Iran nuclear deal amid regional tensions
Only ten days are left until the Iran Presidential elections, and this is no event in which betting against the odds will make gamblers rich, even in the highly devalued local currency. The winner will be Ebrahim Raisi, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s favorite candidate, for whom the race was cleared from competition. Because of the waiting for the transition from Hassan Rouhani to Raisi, it seems that the Vienna negotiations on a mutual return to the 2015 nuclear deal were put on hold, so that the credit for sanctions relief will not be given to the moderates in Tehran, led by Rouhani. Meanwhile, the hard-liners reporting to Khomeini, whose foreign activity arm is the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, continue their subversive regional policy from Iraq and Yemen to Syria and Lebanon, where Israel keeps trying to block their designs against it.Tue 8.6.2021 at 20.30Israel's political conundrum and security implications
Israeli politicians and observers have been taught by experience, both historically and over the last two deadlocked years, to reserve judgment on efforts to form governments until they are finally and officially over, with the newly minted cabinet gaining a Knesset vote of confidence and summoned to the ceremonial group picture with the President, which in this case is going to be one of Reuven Rivlin’s last acts before he leaves office next month. But with that caveat noted, it seems as if only accidents or incidents could prevent a seven-party coalition jointly headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid from ousting Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition, ending his twelve-year reign but having a very uncertain life expectancy of its own. What’s next for Israeli politics and policies?Fri 4.6.2021 at 20.30Iran's regional aspirations and activities
The Vienna talks between Iran and several parties regarding the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action, commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal, have entered their fifth round. With progress towards an agreement on a mutual return to compliance reported as a hopeful indicator but not enough for a deal. The American side is involved indirectly, in a sort of proximity talks, while the focus remains on Iran’s nuclear activities and U.S. sanctions imposed on Tehran’s economy.Tue 1.6.2021 at 20.30Post-Guardian of the Walls: overview & analysis
Following eleven-days of combat between the Islamist organizations in the Gaza Strip and Israel, a military operation dubbed by the IDF ‘Guardian of the Walls’, has come to an end exactly a week and a half from today. The cessation of hostilities, whether triggered by a nudge from the Biden Administration or by the exhaustion of the IDF’s prioritized targets-bank, has seemingly sparked international desires to see the long-stalled political process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority revived.Fri 28.5.2021 at 20.30Europe’s strategic challenges amid global changes
When one looks at the world from the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels, one sees both problems and prospects in new alignments. To the West, Britain has broken away from the Continent, leaving the EU with twenty-seven member states and doubts about the dream of a cohesive European project. The United States under President Joe Biden is re-affirming the Transatlantic Alliance which seemingly frayed during the term of his predecessor. To the East, Russia and China are a constant security challenge but China is even more imposing. To the South, Northern Africa and the Middle East never sleep, with concerns from Libya to Syria, and farther east to Iran and maritime shipping in the Persian Gulf. Are European countries up for the task of dealing with Challenges and Opportunity presented to the continent?Tue 25.5.2021 at 20.30Israel’s campaign between the wars
The Israeli security doctrine is based on the assumption that peace is not at hand. That is, even if some of the Jewish State’s neighbors, sign treaties, their regimes could fall into hostile hands once again. In any event, there will remain other die-hard elements bent on disputing Israel’s existence and well-being. The challenge for Israeli strategists is to avoid a constant wartime mentality, which will block the country’s social and economic progress, and find the right balance in fighting its enemies to hold them at bay while delaying major clashes.Fri 21.5.2021 at 20.30Russia-Turkey relations amid latest developments
Despite his signature militant rhetoric, Turkish President Recep Tayep Erdogan has recently signaled a more pragmatic approach to several regional issues. He has seemingly moderated his stand towards Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel and even Turkey’s arch-rival, Greece. When U.S. President Joe Biden broke with his predecessors’ reluctance to recognize the Ottoman massacres of Armenians more than a century ago as genocide, Ankara was predictably angry but much less than was expected. An obvious explanation is Turkey’s historic fear of Russia, its neighbor across the Black Sea, as indicated by Erdogan’s embrace of Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenskiy.Tue 18.5.2021 at 20.30Israel’s political deadlock - New government on the horizon
Less than two weeks after Binyamin Netanyahu failed to form a government, his opponents seem on the verge of translating their makeshift alliance into a new Executive Branch. The idea is to have a two-headed cabinet, presided over by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid and consisting of six parties and being supported by two more. What are the prospects of this coalition successfully forming a government, and if it does, how will it weather both internal and external pressures?Fri 14.5.2021 at 20.30- Tue 11.5.2021 at 20.30
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Russia-Iran tensions over control of Syria
When Syrian President Bashar Assad was in real danger of being ousted in Syria’s Civil War, in the first half of the last decade, both Iran and then Russia came to his rescue. He certainly owes them as well as Lebanon’s Iranian-proxy Hezbollah, gratitude for his survival. But international politics is an unsentimental business and now Russia and Iran are each pursuing its own interests in Syria, leading to tensions between Moscow and Tehran over their respective agendas in Damascus.Tue 4.5.2021 at 20.30General Overview: Efforts to revive the Iran Nuclear Deal in Vienna
Reports out of Vienna, regarding the indirect talks between Iranian and American negotiators on the terms of mutual return to the 2015 Nuclear Deal, indicate they have already basically agreed that the return to the deal will be full compliance for full compliance with a step-by-step approach, rather than halfway measures. There are still two issues on which there are gaps between the parties. The sequencing of lifting sanctions and reversing Uranium enrichment and the separation of those sanctions to be lifted from those that are not. So how close are they to concluding their task, and what are the implications for the Middle East in general and Israel in particular?Fri 30.4.2021 at 20.30U.S. Mideast strategic interests and challenges
President Joe Biden has made his first major foreign policy decision, and while it is not focused on the Middle East, but rather on a region adjacent to it, the regional implications are evident. In ordering all American forces out of Afghanistan by September 11, Biden laid out a rationale based on both ends and means. American attention must turn to China and to a lesser extent Russia, and by virtue of priorities away from secondary spots including the Middle East; diplomacy must have primacy over military involvement. What is the signal to be received by Biden’s audience from Tehran to Jerusalem to the capitals of NATO member states? Has the United States changed its perception of interests and challenges in our neighbourhood?Tue 27.4.2021 at 20.30Israel vs Iran: The Campaign Between the Wars
Immediately after Israel won its War of Independence, it started worrying about what was immediately called “the second round”. That is, rather than a fight which ends with a knock-out or a tie, but anyway with a handshake, it goes on and on for countless rounds. Soon enough it turned out that this analogy is too simplistic, because even between the major rounds of 1956, 67, 73 and 82 there were skirmishes, raids and hostilities. The participants obviously changed, but not the concept. Now called “the campaign between the wars”, with Israel pitted against Palestinian militias, Jihadi groups, Hezbollah and potentially, most explosively against Iran.Fri 23.4.2021 at 20.30Jordan’s stability: strategic overview
A few weeks ago, shock waves hit the Middle East, and particularly Israel, when word came out of Amman that a planned coup against King Abdullah The Second was foiled and that the most senior figure in the plot was the King’s half-brother, Prince Hamza, who was confined to his residence. But then it turned out that there was less to the story than met the ears and that it was more conversations than conspiracies . The Hashemite regime seems fully in control and the family feud is being mediated by the siblings’ uncle. Nevertheless, the episode served to highlight Jordan’s unique strategic position in the region and the stakes in its stability.Tue 20.4.2021 at 20.30Israel between national days and political deadlock
This has been one of these weeks which seem peculiar to Israel, moving from the down-to-earth bargaining of politics to somber and then joyous ceremonies of national commemoration and celebration. As the country marked its Memorial and Independence days, there was a short respite in the efforts to cobble together a Knesset coalition able to support a functioning government. On its seventy-third birthday, how independent is the State of Israel and how self-sustaining is its political system?Fri 16.4.2021 at 20.30Israel’s preparedness amid looming threats
Over the last two years, Israel’s primary concern was atypically not its preparedness to cope with security challenges but rather a unique mix of pandemic and politics. However, now that the COVID-19 crisis is seemingly on a steep downward curve and negotiations between potential coalition partners have shifted into a more practical mode following last month's elections, the focus will inevitably return to Israel’s unfinished business with its various enemies. Most prominently, those in Iran, Lebanon, Gaza and Syria. Has Israel kept in shape during this pause from perils, or has it lost its edge?Tue 13.4.2021 at 20.30Iran’s revolutionary policies amid Western scrutiny
Talks between delegations from several parties to the 2015 nuclear deal got rolling in Vienna, with the United States participating indirectly and making sure its conciliatory messages to Iran reach their audiences both in Tehran and around the world. One intriguing question is, how will Iran behave in the next two months, while these talks are ongoing and the election campaign to succeed President Rouhani reaches its climax. Will the regime or its more militant elements escalate their activities in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and other fronts, or will they prefer a tactical pause.Fri 9.4.2021 at 20.30Russia-Israel relations - Strategic Overview
The three dominant themes in the calculus of Russian-Israeli relations now seem to be Power, Prestige and Proximity. Russia is obviously a rising or returning force in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean; while its global competitor, the United States, wants to reduce its own military involvement in the region. And because Russia’s Air, Naval and to some extent Ground presence in Syria makes Russian forces subject to friction with Israel’s Air Force operating against Iranian targets threatening Israel from its neighbor to the north, de-conflicting is a constant concern.Tue 6.4.2021 at 20.30Jerusalem's political instability
With the vote count in Israel’s Parliamentary elections formally over and published in the Official Gazette, the focus has shifted to the President’s House here in the Nation’s Capital, where Reuven Rivlin, due to retire in three months, consults with the thirteen parties elected to the incoming Knesset, Hebrew for Parliament, in order to settle on a nominee able to form a new government. Several candidates are jockeying for power, and if they all fail the country will be subjected to a fifth election campaign in a little over two years.Fri 2.4.2021 at 20.30Lebanon domestic woes amid deep rooted corruption
When one tries to follow Lebanese politics, it is as if nothing of significance took place in Beirut, Tripoli, Baal Bek and the other cities and districts over since deep into the last century. The same name of political families and dynasties are heard now as in 2005, 1990 or even earlier. Maronite, Shiite and Sunni power brokers jockey for position and enjoy the forbidden fruits of corruption, while the country sinks into an economic and social abyss. What is in the cards for Israel’s poor and strife-torn neighbour to the North?Tue 30.3.2021 at 20.30Israel Post-Election Overview
The only certainty following Tuesday elections in Israel is that uncertainty still reigns supreme in Jerusalem. Israel has joined the ranks of such crisis-ridden democratic systems as Italy, or the 1950’s Fourth Republic in France. There are several mathematical possibilities of forming a government, headed either by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or by one of his many rivals in a fragile coalition, but all of those point to a continued period of instability. As the votes are finally and formally counted, with each fraction changing sides able to tilt the results, we will try to find our way in the fog.Fri 26.3.2021 at 20.30Israel’s Elections Day - Special
In less than one-hour, the first exit polls will grant anxious Israelis a rough idea about the chances for their elected representatives to finally setup a functioning government, more than two years after the last one fell apart. Ahead of the expected moment, we will attempt to provide a general analysis of Jerusalem’s political state of play.Tue 23.3.2021 at 20.30EastMed Strategic regional overview
If one tries to look at the Mediterranean from West to East, the obvious check point of Gibraltar is nowadays the most serene one, and there is no trouble between Spain in the north and the African nation of Morocco, except for migrants trying to cross over into Europe. Storm clouds start to gather over the central region, where Libya is torn between local forces which are respectively helped by two Eastern Med powers, Egypt and Turkey. Going east, turbulence picks up. There is a dispute about dividing the spoils of the sea between Lebanon and Israel, and even more so between the bitter enemies, Turkey and Greece, which are in conflict over the resources hidden below the Aegean Sea. With exploratory talks between Athens and Ankara about to set sail, we will try to break it all down in our discussion.Fri 19.3.2021 at 20.30- Tue 16.3.2021 at 20.30
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Egypt’s challenges between East & West
The re-emergence of the Democratic Party as the ruling power in Washington is a challenge to the foreign and even domestic policies of the Sisi regime in Cairo. President Abd el Fatah a-Sisi, then a General, ousted President Morsi because he was too close to the Moslem Brotherhood, whose rise was partly related to the Obama-Biden Administration’s hostility towards Hosni Mubarak. Sisi’s conclusion was that he had to diversify Egypt’s strategic ties and strengthen his ties with Russia, both because it is less shocked by human rights problems and as a rising power in the region while the U.S., under Trump as well, wished to lessen its involvement. Now Sisi is facing Biden, with a host of issues, such as Libya, Syria, terrorism versus human rights, Iran, Arms Sales, the Eastern Mediterranean, Israeli-Palestinian peace and the Ethiopian Dam. So how does Sisi maneuver between Putin and Biden?Tue 9.3.2021 at 20.30Israel vs Iran; tensions on the rise
Israel and Iran do not have a common land border, which means that a sudden massive invasion by ground forces against each other’s territory is impossible. But on all other dimensions of their hostility, in countries adjacent to Israel or deep inside Iran, on the high seas and in the invisible worlds of Cyber and Intelligence, there is constant activity. Among the latest developments - an attack in the Gulf of Onan on a ship owned by an Israeli businessman and a strike against Iranian targets in Syria. Do these actions portend further escalation, and are they independent of the diplomatic maneuvers in the relationship between the Biden Administration and the Khamenei regime?Fri 5.3.2021 at 20.30Iraq: domestic challenges amid foreign influences
This week marks the Thirtieth anniversary of the end of the first Iraq War. A coalition headed by the United States and including Saudi, Syrian and Egyptian forces defeated Saddam Hussein and imposed limits on his power. But twelve years later, war erupted again, and this time Saddam was captured and executed, Iraq was occupied and its fragile domestic equilibrium shattered. In almost Amtwo decades, it is yet to find the right balance between its Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish components and the outside forces competing in it, primarily Iran and the United States.Tue 2.3.2021 at 20.30US-Iran renegotiating JCPOA; Overview
The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi, emerged from his talks in Tehran over the weekend proclaiming a success in getting a stop-gap measure in the standoff regarding the fate of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, all members of the UN Security Council plus Gernany and the EU. Grossi and his Iranian interlocutors agreed to a so-called “temporary technical understanding” under which limited monitoring activities of nuclear facilities will go on for the next three months, while political negotiations intensify between Washington, Tehran and EU headquarters in Brussels. The tension, emenating from a new Iranian law dictating non-cooperation with nuclear inspectors, has eased, with the focus shifting to the Biden Administration emerging negotiation posture.Fri 26.2.2021 at 20.30Yemen Conflict: Conflict, terror & humanitarian concerns
In one of its very first policy moves in the Middle East, the Biden Administration focused on war-torn Yemen from two directions. It announced an end to supplying Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E arms used in their offensive campaigns against the Houthis, helping them only to defend against Houthi attacks on their homelands and shipping in the Gulf of Aden and in the approaches to the Red Sea. And it revoked part of the Trump Administration measures against the Houthis, by distinguishing between the organization as a whole, which will now be exempt from sanctions, and various leaders, who will remain on the forbidden list. The rationale is the same - concern about the humanitarian crisis for Yemeni civilians. What does it all portend for Yemen, and is there a more lesson to be learned from it regarding Biden’s regional policies?Tue 23.2.2021 at 20.30Is the MidEast heading toward a nuclear arms race?
Next month will mark the fifty first anniversary of the non-proliferation treaty, the NPT, coming into force. Only five nations in the world are not members of this voluntary regime, which involves obligations and benefits. But despite signing and ratifying the treaty, interests and ambitions of governments and individuals keep driving some countries to aim for nuclear weapons. It’s a nightmare domino theory - if Iran gets the bomb, it would soon have company in Turkey, in Saudi Arabia, in Egypt, in the United Arab Emirates. So what is the state of this race? Are the others just watching Tehran and waiting for a cue, or do Riyadh and Ankara among regional capitals working on their own private schedules?Fri 19.2.2021 at 20.30Global power competition: Mideast’ implication
A few years ago, when Joe Biden was Barack Obama’s understudy in preparation for his own Presidency, their administration announced a “pivot” from the Middle East to the Far East, especially with a view to China as the main global competitor with the United States. There has been some delay, as Daesh had to be crushed and Iran remained an active foreign policy problem due to President Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal with it, but now the move away from the Mideast is back, and this time it may hold. What does that mean for American, Russian and Chinese moves in the region? Will France return to its historic role in Lebanon? How are Turkey and Iran going to respond to new realities? And most crucial for us here, what does it portend for Israel?Tue 16.2.2021 at 20.30Israel’s northern front: challenges & opportunities
When Israeli political and military leaders talk about the security problems they are facing, the Gaza strip is always explosive but containable as long as Hamas prefers it, and the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority is quiet yet amenable to violent changes. The only constant is the clear and present danger in the north, because of the interface between three forces hostile to Israel - Hezbollah, as the de-facto ruler of Lebanon as regards Israel; Syria, which is torn in its civil conflict and has lost its independent policy making power but not its determination to retrieve the Golan Heights; and Iran, whose tentacles reach out to the Syrian-Israeli front. Under these circumstances, how does Israel view the complicated situation across its northern frontier? Are there only challenges for it, or also opportunities?Fri 12.2.2021 at 20.30Turkey-Israel relations; Friend or Foe?
If one safely goes back to a cliche always relevant in the Middle East, about my enemy’s enemy being my friend, Turkey is certainly not yet Israel’s friend again, even though it is less vehement a foe than it used to be until recently. It is more like my enemy’s friend, the enemy being HAMAS in Gaza, while Israel has the friendliest of relations with two of Turkey’s adversaries, Greece and Cyprus. But with the onset of a new administration in Washington considered hostile to the Erdogan regime but reputed to be susceptible to Israeli arguments, Ankara seemingly inches closer to Jerusalem. Is it really so, and if it is, what’s the next step up this road?Tue 9.2.2021 at 20.30Iran's nuclear ambitions - between war & diplomacy
In about two weeks’ time an ultimatum will be tested in the tense American-Iranian relationship. Unusually, it was issued in Tehran and directed at Washington, rather than the other way around. The Iranian Parliament has threatened, by legislation, that if by the Twenty First sanctions re-imposed on Iran by the Trump administration are not lifted, limits on Iranian non-compliance with its obligations under the 2015 will be broken. While this is only one tactic by one Iranian body, disputed by others, it nevertheless underscores the escalstory nature of friction left over from the Trump era, while Biden and his associates express their wish to renew the deal and improve on it, but have yet to take concrete steps in this direction. So is the clock ominously ticking, or is it just another phase in a turbulent relationship?Fri 5.2.2021 at 20.30Libya’s future and strategic significance
The civil conflict in Libya reached a hopeful milestone in mid-January, with a UN-sponsored agreement on a mechanism for holding elections in late December, 11 months from now. It is a complicated arrangement for an executive council, a presidential trio and a prime minister, with candidate lists submitted by regions controlled by either a Turkish supported Tripoli government or an Egyptian backed Bengazi militia. To break it all down, and perhaps put it together again.Tue 2.2.2021 at 20.30U.S.-Israel relations amid regional challenges
When the new Defense Secretary, retired General Austin, reached his office at the Pentagon two days after President Biden’s inauguration, he immediately had two intelligence briefings, first on China and then on the Middle East. Then he started calling colleagues around the world, starting with the Secretary General of NATO, then the British Defence Secretary, the Japanese one and their South Korean counterpart. Israel and the rest of the Middle East had to wait their turn. It signaled the order of priorities for this fresh Administration - NATO and East Asia first. What does that mean for the Washington-Jerusalem relationship, as the region awaits the set up if the entire Biden team and its policy initiatives, vis-a-vis Iran and elsewhere?Fri 29.1.2021 at 21.15Israel and the Arab world
One election down and two or three to go - that is the score as President Joe Biden gets used to sleeping above his new Oval Office, the political campaign in Israel heats up, Iran prepares its own Presidential contest and Palestinian Authority head Mahmud Abbas also declares his decision to put his own position and his Parliament up for a vote. This is certainly a time of transition, of choosing leaders and of getting used to a mix of old and new faces. It is also the right moment to take stock and consider Israel’s position vis-a-vis the Arab world.Tue 26.1.2021 at 20.30Syria’s state of affairs amid regional tensions
This must be one of the most frustrating and even heartbreaking anniversaries in memory. Ten years ago, the so-called Arab Spring erupted in Tunisia and soon spread Eastword, challenging entrenched regimes and bringing new or naive hopes to suppressed populations. But nowhere have these hopes neen dashed more cruelly than in Syria, with millions killed, wounded, displaced or exiled, the Assad regime clinging to power by whatever means at its disposal and Russians, Iranians, Turks, Kurds and Israelis fighting for their interests in various regions of the war-torn country. What are the prospects for finally bringing peace, power sharing and stability to Syria?Fri 22.1.2021 at 20.30Israel-Greece relations and common challenges
Athens and Jerusalem have had a complicated relationship, and not only in antiquity. Except for Cuba, Greece was the only non-Arab, non-Moslem member of the United Nations to vote against the establishment of the State of Israel in a partition of British Mandate’s Palestine. Later, the Greek-Israeli connection was overshadowed by the Ben Gurion doctrine of forging a regional alliance of countries such as Turkey with a Western orientation and in opposition to Arab leaders such as Egypt’s Nasser. But in recent years, it has changed to such an extent that the tables seem to have turned, with Turkey hostile towards Israel and Greece its warm friend and partner. Of course, it all has to do with the three E’s - Energy, Economy and Erdogan.Tue 19.1.2021 at 20.30Iran’s nuclear ambitions amid global changes
These are tense days in Iran’s relationship with the rest of the world, or at least those countries and organizations that are suspicious of the Islamic Republic and its nuclear aspirations. As the Trump administration is in transition mode to the incoming Biden administration, whose principal officials have already signalled their intention to refresh the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action rejected by their predecessors, Tehran is on a maximum pressure campaign of its own to push Biden to do its bidding. What is at stake and how is it going to unfold?Fri 15.1.2021 at 20.30Jerusalem’s political instability amid challenges
The State of Israel is evidently struggling to attain much needed stability. Following a relatively short hiatus of attempts by those poised to grip Jerusalem’s power reins – at least declaratively so - for the purpose of dealing with the nations numerous challenges; on March 23rd, the state of Israel will once again head to the polls. Naturally, the following question arises: Will these upcoming elections draw Israel from what appears to be a bottomless well – or are we expected to linger in a political limbo of sorts, which spells growing hardships amid lurking military, diplomatic, economic and social dangers?Tue 12.1.2021 at 20.30Israel: overall projections for 2021
As Israel entered 2021, there are several variables which will have a major impact on the road ahead for the new year. First and foremost, the prolonged ramifications of the so-called corona crisis in Israel, the crucial necessity to realize a somewhat obscure balance between health and economy. Attempting to realize this necessary balance may prove difficult without a stable government – which may – or may not - emerge from yet another round of elections, which are set to be held in March. Separately, Israel’s regional and global standing is seemingly faced with a number of significant challenges – from Jerusalem’s relations with Washington, on the one hand, to an Iranian regime in Tehran that overtly calls for – and covertly strives for - the destruction of the Jewish State.Fri 8.1.2021 at 20.302020 recap: lessons & projections
It took us a full year, but we finally managed to push 2020 into the history books and make way for what we all hope is going to be a much better year. So before we turn the page, let’s try to analyze what 2020 meant for this region and this nation - the Middle East and at its heart, as we look from Jerusalem, the State of Israel.Fri 1.1.2021 at 20.30The EastMed dispute & its implications for Israel - Part 2
A few days ago we held the first part of a conversation about the state of play in the Eastern Mediterranean - one of the cradles of human civilization, which of course includes not only spiritual and technological progress but also friction and conflict. We tried to lay out the various interests and policies of several actors, from Athens and Ankara to Jerusalem, Cairo, Nicosia and Beirut. Now, in our second part, we will try to do what sailors did in the Med from time immemorial and peer into the fog, looking for a beacon from some lighthouse before we are grounded on a reef or a beach.Tue 22.12.2020 at 20.30The EastMed dispute & its implications for Israel - Part 1
The Eastern half of the Mediterranean did not change its political geography over the last several decades. The same countries are there, inhabiting mainlands and islands, including two entities whose status is unsettled - the Turkish-occupied part of Cyprus and the Gaza strip. Yet what was a quiet sea, seasonal storms notwithstanding, turned into troubled waters because of two factors - the newly discovered resources in contested Exclusive Economic Zones and the assertive policy of the Ankara government under Recep Tayep Erdogan. This is a subject too comprehensive to squeeze into one talk, so for the first of two parts..Fri 18.12.2020 at 20.30Iran's nuclear Ambitions amid Latest developments
With President-Elect Joe Biden’s inauguration a little over a month away, the Islamic Republic of Iran is anxiously awaiting the formulation of Biden’s cabinet and policy, as well as the corelation of forces in Washington, which could depend on the results of the two Georgia Senate contests. But even if the Republicans keep their Senate majority, they could at most block some of Biden’s nominees and initiatives, not impose any on him. So for the time being Tehran is in a waiting mode, accumulating low-enriched uranium as a signal it could do more if it wanted, keeping its powder dry so as not to give the outgoing Trump administration a pretext for a major military strike, and prepare for a resumption of talks and the lifting of sanctions promised by Biden once the US reverts to the Obama-era line rejected by Trump.Tue 15.12.2020 at 21.15Israel heading to Parliamentary elections
For the last two years Israel has been engulfed in a political crisis, with three election circles ending in a deadlock temporarily broken by the decision by the main challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to join his government as a nominal equal partner. The price paid by Benny Gantz was a split down the middle in his Blue-White party, leaving him powerless to conpete with Netanyahu in or out of cabinet. Less than seven months into their government, they are about to call for new elections, tentatively timed for next spring, with no end in sight for Israel’s crisis.Fri 11.12.2020 at 20.30Are Earthquakes threatening Israel’s Home Front?
The scenario is frightening. Some seven thousand killed. Many more wounded. One hundred seventy thousand left homeless as buildings collapse and infrastructure essentials such as power and water supply are damaged. The good news is that we keep hearing these warnings about earthquakes threatening Israel and are relieved to see that so far nothing of the kind has happened. The bad news is that we may grow complacent and be shocked into grim reality when it does happen. So where between these poles of fear and fatalism does Israel stand?Tue 8.12.2020 at 20.30Israel’s preparedness for a wide-scale conflict
With the Middle East, just like the rest of the world, pre-occupied with the year-long Covid-19 crisis, Israel’s enemies are in no rush or indeed position to initiate large-scale hostilities against the Jewish State. If there is any movement at all, it is in the opposite direction, with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan officially leaving the anti-Israel front. Yet the conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran persists and may engulf Syria, where there are Iranian-backed militias and proxies; Lebanon, home base to Hizbollah; and Gaza, out of which Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operate. How well is Israel prepared for such an eventuality?Fri 4.12.2020 at 20.30MidEast Cyber & Security
Two invisible elements have evidently shaped life in the Middle East and indeed globally over this year, which is approaching its end. One is of course the Corona virus, in a pandemic which only now begins to show some promise of being contained by vaccines next year. There is more than meets the eye in Cyber, too, a new form of warfare to which societies blessed with the most advanced technological and economic infrastructure are more vulnerable than relatively primitive one. What is being and can be done, offensively and defensively, in the realm of Cyber between governments, organizations and even self-motivated hackers? Joining us, and hoping that no Cyber attack will disrupt our talk.Tue 1.12.2020 at 20.30Israel's expected strategy to thwart Iran's nuclear activities
With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated a pledge ‘never to allow Iran to get nuclear weapons’ global events are seemingly taking hold that may impact Jerusalem political capacity to act. Therefore, in recent weeks, both covert and overt moves and counter-moves have seemingly been pursued by all relevant actors trying to secure their own aspired course-of-action to assure a common goal – to thwart the Islamic Republic of Iran from attaining nuclear weapon capabilities.Fri 27.11.2020 at 20.30The Eastern Mediterranean - Latest Developments
The Eastern Mediterranean, which was relatively tranquil over the last several decades, has recently become a bone of contention and a hotbed of activity. Three major centers of attention are Syria and its neighbors, Turkey to its north and Lebanon to its south and west. Turkey has adopted a militant position vis-a-vis the exploration and exploitation of undersea resources in areas in dispute between it and Greece. And Lebanon is reported to drag its feet in the talks with Israel on demarcating their maritime boundary.Tue 24.11.2020 at 20.30U.S. Elections Special; implications for the MidEast
With two months to go before the inauguration of presumed President-Elect Joe Biden, the transition process is slowly taxing on the runway in order to take off. Biden is considering his top cabinet, White House and agency appointments, while the Trump administration is less than helpful in sharing essential information, facilities and services, in light of legal disputes and allegations pertaining to Election fraud. And while the Middle East is evidently bracing itself ahead of a transition of power in Washington – Jerusalem officials are seemingly challenged with protecting America’s historic bi-partisan support, enjoyed for many decades.Fri 20.11.2020 at 20.30Turkey-Israel: From Strategic partners to regional rivals
In the 1950’s and again in the 1990’s, Israel and Turkey have been regional partners, almost best friends. They both faced the hostility of their common neighbor separating them, Syria. They were officially or practically in the Western orbit. And they had no conflict over the body of water they live next to, the Mediterranean. All of that changed over the last twenty years, with Turkey at odds with Israel over religion, Palestinians and energy resources, and pulling away from the United States. Is it reversible, or are Turkey and Israel doomed to remain rivals, as long as Ankara is led by President Erdogan?Tue 17.11.2020 at 20.30Europe's battle against Islamist terror
France has become a major battleground in the fight between European governments, whose populations are mostly Christian, and Islamist terrorists who are out to impose their ideology by all means possible. The recent brutal attacks in France and Austria have reignited dialogue among European leaders to combat (what they term) political Islam. Is it just a security problem, or a more fundamental one? Will the measures taken by French and other authorities decrease the friction, or only increase it?Fri 13.11.2020 at 20.30Israel-Armenia relations amid challenges and interests
The renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed district of Nagorno-Karabakh put Israel in an uneasy position between the two. Israel has long had an emotional attachment to the Armenian people, whose plight under Ottoman rule during the First World War preceded the Jewish people’s Holocaust in Europe during the Second war. But rationally, rather than emotionally, Azerbaijan is more of an asset to Israel, because of its border with Iran and the defense items it buys from Israeli industry. The difference between Armenia and Azerbaijan, from an Israeli economic viewpoint, is between millions and billiond. How do Yerevan and Jerusalem manage their relationship, under these circumstances?Tue 10.11.2020 at 20.30Turkey’s global standing, interests and challenges
Under President Recep Tayep Erdogan, Turkey has changed its global positioning system in two important and to some extent overlapping ways. A long-time member of NATO, an alliance created to contain Soviet ambitions, Ankara has recently moved away from Washington and Brussels and towards Moscow; and as a regional power, Turkey has assumed a pro-active policy in the Levant, the Mediterranean, the Caucasus and the Balkans. Are these ventures or adventures? Is Turkey better off with this break with traditional policies?Fri 6.11.2020 at 20.30Iran's regional policies & global standing
The Khamenei regime in Tehran is surely taking stock these days, as much like everyone else around the globe it anxiously awaits the outcome of the Presidential and Congressional elections in the United States. On the positive side of the ledger, from its point of view, it did not concede defeat even under the most severe sanctions imposed on its economy in the American “maximum pressure”. Offsetting it, the Iranians are watching the emergence of an American-Israeli-Arab Gulf alliance against their militant outreach. So what is the score, at this time in the contest?Tue 3.11.2020 at 20.30East-Mediterranean tensions. Geopolitical overview
The ancient Romans called it Mare Nostrum, “our sea”, but since their empire fell the Mediterranean has been either in contention between maritime powers or peaceful. As of late, its waters are not still. A storm is brewing out of its northeastern corner, threatening to escalate from crisis to hostilities. Turkey, which under Recep Tayep Erdogan has adopted a distinct nationalistic and Islamist line, is at odds not only with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel, but has now taken on France, with a personal focus on President Emmanuel Macron.Fri 30.10.2020 at 20.30Israel's diplomatic standing and challenges
Because it was born in battle and has always feared for its survival, Israel in its Seventy-Third year is still putting defence over diplomacy. A foreign policy conducted by professionals is nice to have, but protecting the homeland from invasion and devastation is a must. Generals are therefore more important than Ambassadors. And in an uneven global arena, Israel has to carefully balance its relationship with a friendly US administration with the cooler feelings of Europe, Russia and China, with their interests and policies farther than Israel’s vis-a-vis Iran and the Palestinians. So as candidates Trump and Biden head into an election which will obviously impact all of the above, how high is Israel’s diplomatic standing, and what challenges is it facing?Tue 27.10.2020 at 20.30East Mediterranean tensions, prospects of de-escalation
The Eastern half of the Mediterranean has of course been known as one of the cradles of civilization, endowing mankind with Hellenic, Roman, Egyptian and Judeo-Christian legacies, among others. Yet with culture there also comes conflict, with ancient hostilities dormant only until they rise again, due to competition or ideology. This seems to be the situation in the Eastern Med today, with Erdogan’s Turkey determined to upset an arrangement reached by Greece, Israel, Cyprus, Egypt and France, with a possible future addition of Lebanon. Are we headed towards further escalation, or conversely towards de-escalation?Fri 23.10.2020 at 20.30Lebanon-Israel negotiations
After years of intensive and mostly futile efforts, Lebanon and Israel have launched overt negotiations in order to demarcate their maritime border, between the port cities of Beirut and Haifa and West towards the presumably offshore energy treasure that lays beneath the Mediterranean, in the direction of Cyprus. Delegations will be meeting under United Nations auspices at Nakura, in Southwest Lebanon, with American mediation and the Lebanese military representing its government so as to bypass the thorny question of Iran and its proxy Hezbollah influencing Beirut’s position.Tue 20.10.2020 at 20.30The Nagorno-Karabach conflict - Israeli perspectives
It is a story common to many regions of the world. Two neighbours and an enclave between them, with one country holding the edge in geography and the other in demography, leading to persistent conflict. This is the case in the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the province of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as Azeri territory, but is run by an Armenian majority.Fri 16.10.2020 at 20.30Iraq a strategic overview between east and west
The death of Kuwait’s 91-year-old Emir Sabah al Ahmad al Jaber al Sabah in late September served as a reminder to the origins of the United States’ enhanced military involvement in the Arabian Gulf region, which go back to the Iran-Iraq war, including the “tanker war” and the reflagging of local vessels, and then to the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait and two American-led coalition wars against Saddam Hussein’s regime. Ever since the second one, American Presidents have tried to extricate their forces from Iraq without paying too much in regional security and stability. The dilemma is that if the Americans stay, Iran exploits it against a weak government in Baghdad, and if they pull out, in line with a rare wish common to both Barack Obama and Donald Trump, the vacuum is filled by Iranian proxies as well as by Jihadi groups such as Daesh. How is the new government, led by American protege Mustafa al-Kadhimi, faring under these conditions?Tue 13.10.2020 at 20.30Turkey-EU relations amid EastMed dispute
Long before Recep Tayep Erdogan came to power in Ankara, Turkey tried to join the European Union in its various iterations, but was blocked by the Christian nations of Europe which were concerned by the political power to be given to a Moslem country according to its population, which is the rough equal of EU leaders Germany and France. But with the rise of an assertive Erdogan policy and the emergence of the Eastern Mediterranean as a resource-rich hotspot, the relationship between Turkey and certain member states, namely Greece, the ethnic Greek part of Cyprus, Italy and France grew tense, until late last month Germany and the leaders of European institutions helped de-escalate and start a mediation process.Fri 9.10.2020 at 20.30Iran’s aspirations amid global quarrels
The Islamic Republic of Iran is in an extremely bad shape, with setbacks in almost every issue set - health, economy, military ambitions, foreign policy. Yet for Tehran, all is not lost, as it awaits the turn of events in the American political season. For the time being, as it has not fulfilled its threat to avenge the death of Quds Force General Qassam Soleimani, it seems as if Iran is determined to wait out the contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in the meantime using its Shiite Iraqi proxies to try to drive the U.S. out of its Baghdad embassy. Iran has also been unhappy but relatively quiet regarding the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries. So where are the Iranians at this juncture?Tue 6.10.2020 at 20.30The Eastern Mediterranean dispute: a strategic overview
During the cold war, the Eastern Mediterranean was considered a potential front involving American and Soviet Naval task forces. The Israeli Navy also clashed with those of Egypt and Syria. But now the picture is much more complicated, with the main problem being Turkish policy under President Erdogan, who alienated Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Italy and Egypt in a dispute over sovereignty and energy. As an aside, there are also Israeli and Lebanese claims and counter claims regarding a gas-rich corner of their common maritime boundary.Fri 2.10.2020 at 20.30Israel's vision for regional peace, security and prosperity
When President Trump hosted the representatives of Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain at the White House last week for a ceremony hailing the normalization of relations between the two Gulf countries and Israel, American as well as Israeli officials saw it as a new paradigm in the Middle East. No longer, they said, are various Arab governments going to wait for the resolution of the Palestinian conflict with Israel, before they act according to their own interests and upgrade their de-facto ties with Jerusalem. UAE first, Bahrain second, soon maybe Oman, Sudan, or Saudi Arabia. A common Iranian threat and prospects of economic cooperation will work for regional stability, according to this view. Is this realistic, or merely another fata morgana?Tue 29.9.2020 at 20.30Israel's battle against the Coronavirus
This is the annual time of Jewish High Holidays when many Israelis are taking time off from work to celebrate with their families. But this year the situation is far from normal. The second wave of the Covid-19 crisis has hit Israel quite hard, with numbers of patients in need of hospital care steadily rising and medical facilities almost full to capacity. Israeli authorities decided to impose a lockdown, but compliance with regulations is spotty at best. How severe is the crisis and what could be done to alleviate the danger and keep the economy from falling into deep depression?Fri 25.9.2020 at 20.30France’s growing Mideast presence
When European powers ruled the post-Ottoman Middle East, France was Britain’s junior partner and rival, concentrating on the northern part of the Levant - Syria and Lebanon. Following Lebanon’s independence in the 1940’s, France became more of a cultural than political force – labelling the city of Beirut – Paris of the Mediterranean. While Syria, Israel, the United States had significantly more influence on Lebanese affairs - the horrendous blast in the port if Beirut on August 4th changed this balance, with President Emmanuel Macron visiting the Lebanese capital twice to demand of local leaders must needed political and economic reforms.Tue 22.9.2020 at 20.30The Palestinian cause between diplomacy and conflict
The relationship between the two separate Palestinian entities, bordering Israel but not each other, has made no real progress over the last 13 years, ever since the Islamist Hamas organization took over Gaza by force of arms and in return was left out of power in the Palestinian Authority ruling the West Bank. Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas and Hamas leader Yahia Sinwar hold different views of Israel, with Abbas believing in negotiations and Sinwar in armed-resistance, yet neither seems to advance their declared “cause” by decisive action.Fri 18.9.2020 at 20.30The Syria conflict: Latest developments
Before it began, 2020 was assessed to be the last year of the Syrian civil war, which erupted in 2011. This turned out to be either wishful thinking or an overly optimistic assumption which fell victim to the Corona virus. As the year approaches its end, the conflict is still there, with most of the same domestic and foreign actors - the Assad regime and its opposition, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, the United States and various Jihadi groups. What are the military and political pictures?Tue 15.9.2020 at 20.30East Mediterranean disputes; Israeli concerns and Interests
The Eastern half of the Mediterranean, between Italy on the European side and Libya on the African one and the Asian shore, is one of the cradles of human civilization, and thereby also a fighting arena from time immemorial. Its ancient empires declined and emerged in new national forms, and In recent years engaged in conflict and cooperation centred on the rich resources deep under the waters.Fri 11.9.2020 at 20.30Intra-Arab alliances, challenges and interests
In the 75 years since the creation of the Arab League, which grew from six members to twenty-two, the Arab countries of North Africa, the Levant and the Persian Gulf areas have never acted as a unified block, except at times against Israel. Now, with Iran and Jihadist groups as their mortal enemies, Israel at peace with Egypt and Jordan as well as normalizing its relations with the United Arab Emirates, the conflicting interests of the various Arab countries are expressed in their alliances with each other and with non-Arab regional and global actors.Tue 8.9.2020 at 20.30US maximum pressure campaign vs Iran
In about two weeks time, on September 20th, the global sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran which have been lifted five years ago and include conventional arms embargo will snap-back into force, because of an American decision to veto any UN Security Council action to avoid it. This is the latest move in U.S. President Donald Trump’s so-called Maximum Pressure campaign against the Ayatollah regime in Tehran. In defiance of the American move, Iran unveiled domestic-made long-range ballistic and cruise missiles – while separately – it sought-out international support by striking a deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency.Fri 4.9.2020 at 20.30Lebanon battles for survival amid deep-rooted distress
Four weeks after the horrific blast on the port of Beirut, which killed close to two-hundred people, wounded thousands more, and brought about the resignation of the cabinet - Lebanon is still beset by a series of crises - health, corruption and long-lasting political deadlock due to foreign influences. Is there a cure for the Lebanese problem?Tue 1.9.2020 at 20.30Challenges on Israel's southern front with Gaza
For several weeks now, the Gaza-Israel front has been simmering. Balloons strapped with incendiary and explosive devices are set-sailing by Hamas towards Israeli villages, towns and farmlands, sparking numerous daily fires under the scorching-sun and risking lives. In response, Israeli fighterjets, unmanned aerial vehicles and tanks hit Hamas positions near-daily, all-the-while refraining from targeting Islamist militants to avoid a wider-escalation. In tandem; Mediators from Egypt and Qatar have not yet succeeded in resuming the ceasefire. What is behind this tension and could it escalate into a full-scale clash?Fri 28.8.2020 at 20.30Israel’s rapprochement to the Arab world
A week after the United Arab Emirates and Israel announced their intention to normalize their relations and bring them from the practical level to an official one, there are mixed ramifications. More and more Arabian Gulf regimes react favorably and may soon follow suit, yet in Israel’s immediate vicinity, in Gaza, it is far from quiet, regardless of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s freeze on his plan to extend Israel’s sovereignty towards the Jordan river.Tue 25.8.2020 at 20.30East Mediterranean - Turkey Greece tensions
When the ancient Greek poet Homer wrote about “the wine-dark sea”, thousands of years ago, he referred to the same part of the Eastern Mediterranean which throughout history has been a naval battleground. Yet today, history and geography converge once again with Turkey and one of its arch-rivals Greece clash over gas reserves hidden underneath; and with regional powers such as Israel and Egypt siding with Athens against Ankara.Fri 21.8.2020 at 20.30- Tue 18.8.2020 at 20.30
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China's growing influence over Iran
The old lesson about politics, including on a global scale, abhorring a vacuum, is apparently being learned once again in the Middle East. The United States is in the process of leaving Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. This policy could be reversed by a future administration, but for the time being, an assertive’ Russia stepped in to claim a leading role in Syria. Even more ominously, China has been negotiating trade and military agreements with Iran. The more the Islamic Republic sinks into crises in its health, economy and strategic affairs, the more Beijing could become its protector and use Tehran as a launching pad into the entire area.Tue 11.8.2020 at 20.30Israel's Imminent Security Challenges
In recent weeks tensions along Israel’s northern front have erupted on several locations – steeply exacerbating the prospects for wider escalation. Are we on the brink of war despite widespread domestic unrest in all the member-states involved?Fri 7.8.2020 at 20.30- Tue 4.8.2020 at 20.30
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Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, prospects and challenges
Are Israel’s aspiration to assert its sovereignty over internationally disputed territories on the West Bank of the Jordan River moving from a rhetorical standpoint to a proactive stage? With July first upon us – are we to expect an imminent historic declaration?Fri 26.6.2020 at 21.15Europe-Israel relations amid talks of West Bank annexation
When Binyamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz formed their co-equal cabinet several weeks ago, both Israeli leaders agreed that Jerusalem would start a move to extend its sovereignty over parts of the disputed territories on the West Bank of the Jordan River, provided Washington gave its blessing the designated territories and consequential measures involved. While this condition is yet to be met, there has been firm opposition to the proposed annexation by leaders of the European Union and its major member states - with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas flying to Jerusalem to counsel Israel to reconsider its unilateral initiative.Tue 23.6.2020 at 21.30Iran’s unyielding pursuit of nuclear weapon capabilities
With less than five months to go before the American Presidential elections, U.S. relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran seem to be moving on two parallel routes leading to heating up and cooling down. There has been a prisoner swap, with express calls on the American side to enlarge this opening for a comprehensive deal focusing on the nuclear dimension but not limited to it, but at the same time there are credible reports that the Iranian regime is moving its Uranium stockpile dangerously close to weapon-grade amount. Do these currents contradict or complement each other?Fri 19.6.2020 at 21.15Saudi-Israel relations and prospects of peace
Saudi Arabia is obviously the largest, wealthiest and most important country in the Arabian peninsula. The Sunni House of Saud considers the militant Shiite regime in Tehran its sworn enemy. There is thus common cause between the Saudis and the Israelis, as well as with the Trump administration in Washington. What is the current state of affairs in this triangle?Tue 16.6.2020 at 20.30Libya’s conflict and strategic significance
The state of Libya, which is a country of significant strategic value in the south-central Mediterranean, continues to be torn between domestic forces supported by regional and global powers. The winning side of the ongoing conflict between the Western-based Government of National Accord and the Eastern-based Libyan National Army, will grant their respective allies control of major economic and energy benefits.Fri 12.6.2020 at 20.30Israel’s growing security challenges. Part 2
Last week, we looked at how Israel prepares for a potential escalation on its Palestinian front, if the planned annexation of parts of the West Bank comes to pass. But the Israeli military has other enemies and other problems.Tue 9.6.2020 at 20.30Israel’s growing security challenges. Part 1
In resent days Israel has stepped up its preparations for various contingencies which may arise in the runup to or following an announcement as early as the beginning of July that Israel is formally asserting its sovereignty over parts of the west bank which includes the Jordan Valley and the biblical districts of Judea and Samaria, however growing threats of massive conflict and other retaliatory measures have been recently leveled at Jerusalem raising questions vis a vis Israel’s preparedness to contend with the potential consequences of a probable annexation.Fri 5.6.2020 at 20.30Iranian's regional activities in the face of Israeli active resistance
In recent weeks, Israel has marked the 20th anniversary of its final withdrawal from Lebanon, thereby depriving the Lebanese Iranian-proxy Hezbollah of its main declared cause for battling Israel. Yet, the Islamic Republic of Iran has persisted in its anti-Israel campaign and is actively using Syria as one-of-several launching pad. As of late, Israel has gone on the offensive, pushing Iranian proxies away from the Golan Heights front. What is the score in this contest, which also includes Cyber attacks and counter-attacks?Tue 2.6.2020 at 20.30Israel's interests and challenges vs-a-vis West Bank annexation
In about one month’s time, the Israeli government would be able to start the process of extending its sovereignty to parts of the territories east of its border and west of the Jordan river. This move should be coordinated with the U.S. administration and has already raised strong objections by the Jordanian and Palestinian leaderships as well as by domestic critics. Is this effort to annex disputed areas practical and wise?Fri 29.5.2020 at 20.30Israel’s qualitative edge amid regional turmoil
The Chinese Ambassador to Israel, Du Wei, was found dead in his residence last week, and while there was seemingly no foul play involved, the timing was curious. Ambassador Du only arrived in Israel three months ago, at the height of the corona contagion’s outbreak in his country, and his death came merely a couple of days after a visit to Jerusalem by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, whose purpose was partly to urge Israel to avoid trade arrangements with Beijing which could threaten American national security. What are China’s interests and ambitions in the Middle East and how does Israel manoeuvre between these global giants?Tue 26.5.2020 at 20.30Israel's newly formed national unity government
Earlier this week, the Israeli Parliament, or Knesset in Hebrew, ended 507 days of political limbo by voting into office a new government, jointly headed by Premier Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival turned Alternate Prime Minister, Benny Gantz. The uniquely structured government has a lot of domestic and foreign issues on its plate, but the over-riding question has to do with its very survival.Fri 22.5.2020 at 20.30Libya: latest update on the situation
The conflict in Libya, between two competing forces assisted by regional and global actors, has seemingly reached a deadlock. Neither the government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, nor the militia commanded by Khalifa Haftar can defeat each other, and the costs in civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction keeps rising. Is there a solution in the horizon, perhaps brokered by the United , Turkey and the United Arab Emirates?Tue 19.5.2020 at 20.30U.S. regional challenges and interests
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Jerusalem for a few hours earlier this week, to confer with Israeli political and intelligence leaders. As usual, he touched upon the joint American-Israeli fight against Iranian aggression, as well as the so-called Trump Peace Plan and a possible change in the status of parts of the West Bank. How do these issues fit into the broader American strategy for the Middle East, less than six months before the U.S. elections?Fri 15.5.2020 at 20.30Israel’s regional security challenges
Israel usually declines to comment on reports detailing alleged attacks by its Air Force and other units in Syria, mostly against Iranian targets. But according to reliable sources in Jerusalem, action against Iran and its proxies had indeed intensified, as of late. Meanwhile, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamist groups in Gaza have not laid down their arms, which are declaratively earmarked for the purpose of annihilating the Jewish State.Tue 12.5.2020 at 20.30Egypt’s efforts to attain social stability & Security
With more than 100 million citizens mostly crowded in metropolitan Cairo and along the Nile river, Egypt is near-impossible to govern, as it is persistently plagued with social unrest, economic misery and security forces struggling against terror groups of various Islamist and Jihadists affiliations. Nevertheless, Egyptian President Abd-el Fatah a-Sisi seems to have relatively stabilized the country in difficult times, including in dealing with the implications of the Coronavirus crisis. Is this really the case?Fri 8.5.2020 at 20.30Iran's military advancement amid COVID19
The Islamic Republic of Iran is suffering from several overlapping crises, which brought public approval of Tehran authorities to a new low. While Iran faces one of the most severe consequences of the corona pandemic, its Revolutionary Guards Corps defied international scrutiny by conducting a successful launch of a military satellite, an obvious signal of missile capabilities – all the while ignoring American warnings to stop harassing the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf and Straits of Hormuz.Tue 5.5.2020 at 20.30Israel's National Emergency Government amid COVID19
Israel marked this week two of the most significant dates on its calendar, its Memorial and Independence Days, to celebrate Seventy-Two years since its inception and to commemorate more than 23 thousand soldiers and civilians who died in wars and terror-related attacks over this period. Yet, this two day pause in routine activities served to underscore an ongoing political crisis in Jerusalem, which is seemingly about to reach a crucial junction next week - either a government will be formed, or a fourth round of elections in little over a year will reluctantly take place.Fri 1.5.2020 at 20.30Syria vs Turkey amid the Corona-crisis
The entire Middle East seems to be focused on the Corona virus crisis. While the spreading contagion is indeed a major issue everywhere, it is not the only one. In northern Syria, the Assad regime and Turkey are still in conflict, with various other powers involved directly or indirectly. To look at this persistent problem, which will probably outlast even, the pandemic.Tue 28.4.2020 at 20.30Israel's relentless battle vs the corona-virus
The Israeli political system, which has defined the coronavirus crisis, as severe enough to justify the establishment of a so-called national emergency government in Jerusalem – has earlier this week started to ease restrictions on the country’s economic and social activities.Fri 24.4.2020 at 20.30Israel, the Palestinians and the Corona virus
Amid ongoing efforts by Israeli authorities to battle the corona contagion, Jerusalem is forced to consider the implication of the pandemic in the two Palestinian entities, neighbouring the country. And while relations with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah is institutionalized, the Jewish State has seen the mutual benefit of working with health authorities in the Islamist-controlled Gaza Strip.Tue 21.4.2020 at 20.30Israel's battle against the Coronavirus
Amid intensifying efforts by Jerusalem authorities to battle the unrelenting spread of the corona contagion, Israel has been beset by several successive holidays of various faiths, in which believers tend to congregate. Nevertheless, amid the unprecedented situation in which social distancing is the order of the day, most Israelis have complied with the restrictive measures enacted by the government.Fri 17.4.2020 at 20.30Iran aspirations and challenges amid COVID19
The Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the countries hardest-hit by the corona contagion, on top of the fact that its global standing and domestic difficulties have challenged the Ayatollah regime well-before the current crisis emerged. Will this pandemic also prove lethal to the regime?Tue 14.4.2020 at 20.30Israel's unyielding battle vs the corona virus
Much like many other countries, Israel has tackled the corona contagion in a relative complacent manner; yet, when it realized the severity of the crisis – it marshalled all of its resources and sprung into action. Is it already possible to outline the full magnitude of the medical, social and economic upheaval?Fri 10.4.2020 at 20.30Mideast Strategic security challenges amid COVID19
The corona contagion overshadows all other issues across the Middle East, as is the case globally. And while all other matters pertaining to the security situation in the Levant and beyond may have been marginalized in the public’s consciousness – they continue to pose challenges to local and major actors, alike.Tue 7.4.2020 at 20.30Israel’s efforts amid COVID19 crisis
Israel is seemingly struggling to contain the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, as the number of confirmed cases steadily rises, already amounting to some thousands of affected Israelis. How is the government in Jerusalem dealing with the contagion’s spread, and to what degree is the Israeli public adherent to the unprecedented – yet necessary – measures?Fri 3.4.2020 at 20.30Israel security challenges amid COVID-19 (part 2)
Following-up on our previous program, in which we discussed several aspects of the coronavirus crisis – and other challenges pertaining to Israel; we will now further analyse the highly complex situation.Tue 31.3.2020 at 20.30Israel security challenges amid COVID-19 (part 1)
The crisis that emerged in Israel with the eruption of the coronavirus has mesmerized the local population to an extent unprecedented, short of all-out military configurations. In contrast to other western societies, where the number of fatalities is must larger; the Jewish State is also dealing with a political deadlock in Jerusalem, and is in a unique position of having to contend with two major crises, at once.Fri 27.3.2020 at 20.30The Iranian nuclear program
While the coronavirus crisis evidently overshadows all other world events; the Islamic Republic of Iran seems bent on challenging the West vis-à-vis its nuclear program. Earlier this month, the international atomic energy agency published a sharp rebuke of the clerical regime in Tehran over its persisting efforts to evade its responsibilities under its obligations as a signatory of the Non-proliferation treaty.Tue 24.3.2020 at 20.30Israel and the Coronavirus, a world pandemic
The commonly-known coronavirus, which was declared by the World Health Organization as a global pandemic, has engulfed Israel – must as it did many other countries, throughout the world. The Israeli interim government has issued strict orders with regard to public and private behavior, with normal life almost grinding to a halt, and the economy suffering a severe blow.Fri 20.3.2020 at 20.30Israel’s qualitative edge amid regional turmoil
As competing politicians in Jerusalem keep actively maneuvering and negotiating in an effort to build a governing coalition, following a third election campaign in less than a year; one issue was sure to concern whoever holds office in the key positions of Prime Minister and Minister of Defense: the security threats to the State of Israel.Tue 17.3.2020 at 20.30Syria vs Turkey, war and diplomacy
A major conflict between Russia and Turkey was seemingly averted last week, when their respective presidents, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, met in Moscow and reached a relatively limited arrangement for an immediate ceasefire in Syria’s northwestern Idlib governorate. Nevertheless, to judge by past agreements - which were proclaimed but never fully implemented - the Syrian situation is as fragile as ever.Fri 13.3.2020 at 20.30U.S.-Israel bilateral relations 2020
There is a span of eight months between last week’s elections in Israel and the anticipated U.S. elections, which are scheduled for November 3rd. During this time, Jerusalem’s next government and the Trump Administration will have to manage the political, diplomatic and security aspects of their relationship, as they lay the ground for a more thorough review of their unique alliance.Tue 10.3.2020 at 20.30Israel’s unprecedented 3rd round of elections
Earlier this week, Israelis headed for the polling stations for an unprecedented third round of elections in 11 months. Unfortunately, their wish for a clear-cut decision did not come true. Outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu survived and even increased his Likud party’s representation in the Knesset, the Parliament, but did not manage to have the threshold necessary for a stable government.Fri 6.3.2020 at 20.30Prospects of a wide-scale Russia-Turkey conflict
Tensions between Ankara and Moscow persist, amid ongoing battles in Syria’s northwestern Idlib region. President Vladimir Putin and his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan are seemingly on a collision course; with Turkey – historically – the weaker party, looking to avoid a major confrontation with Russia.Tue 3.3.2020 at 20.30Israel’s preparedness to tackle the coronavirus
Israel failed to escape the fate that has befallen many countries around the worlds, as the coronavirus spreads, infecting more and more people in various continents. But, for Israel, it is a unique problem because of the possible security and political repercussions.Fri 28.2.2020 at 20.30Turkey’s regional security challenges & aspirations
The area in Northern Syria, just south of the Turkish border, has in recent weeks been the focus of friction, as fighters and refugees move in and out of embattled spots in Idlib province. While Moscow is in full support of Damascus, it is also negotiating with Ankara to find some interim solution.Tue 25.2.2020 at 20.30Israel Unprecedented 3rd Round of Elections
In seventy years since the inception of the Jewish State, Israel elected its Parliament – or Knesset in Hebrew - at an average of once every three and a half years. But a week and a half from today, Israelis will head to the polls for an unprecedented third time in less than a year, with the political fate of outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hanging in the balance.Fri 21.2.2020 at 20.30Syria: latest developments
While hostilities in war-torn Syria are seemly far from over, throughout the country; the focus is now squarely on the northwestern province of Idlib, where the forces of Turkey and the Assad regime are involved in open conflict.Tue 18.2.2020 at 20.30Israel’s security challenges amid escalating tensions
Two weeks ahead of Israel’s unprecedented third round of elections, tensions along its borders are steadily rising. The political deadlock in Jerusalem could either serve as a cover for a sudden round of hostilities, or, convince the adversaries of the Jewish State to wait until after a new Israeli government is finally formed.Fri 14.2.2020 at 20.30Israel’s regional standing and challenges
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is fighting his third election campaign in less than a year, has traveled to Uganda last week in order to meet with Sudan’s leader, General Abdul Fattah al-Burhan, who expressed his wish to normalize Khartum’s relations with Jerusalem. Sudan, bordering Egypt and Ethiopia – among others - is also important for Israel vis-à-vis Iran’s foreign influence. This is only the latest manifestation of Israel’s regional reach, from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf, as well as the Red Sea.Tue 11.2.2020 at 20.30U.S. ‘deal of the century’, projections and implications
When President Donald Trump unveiled his long-awaited vision for peace between Israelis and Palestinians, last week - it drew, as expected, both praise and criticism. While Trump was given credit for trying to succeed where his predecessors failed; he was also faulted for various details of his so-called “Deal of the Century”.Fri 7.2.2020 at 20.30Topic: Turkey-Egypt rising tensions over regional dominance
Ever since the Muslim Brotherhood was toppled in Cairo by General-turned-President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, Turkey’s ruler, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has evidently cooled his country’s relations with Egypt, to the extent that put the two nations on a course of bitter rivalry, for supremacy among Muslim nations in the Eastern Mediterranean.Tue 4.2.2020 at 20.30Iran’s ideological aspirations and hurdles
Forty years on, the Islamic Republic of Iran, is both an ideological power wishing to export its fundamental theology; and, a realistic nation-state aware of power politics. The two streams are reflected in the struggle apparently involving major figures in the regime – following the latest flareups with the United States.Fri 31.1.2020 at 20.30Israel’s legal challenges amid ICC investigations
The international criminal court, which is operated for less than 20 years, is causing Israel quite a headache. Its Chief prosecutor has referred to the governing body several issues, which have to do with both Jurisdiction and substance with a negative impact, on Israeli civilian and military leaders. Is this really a dangerous new front for Israel, or should it be seen as marginal, in comparison to other threats facing it?Tue 28.1.2020 at 20.30Struggles of democracies to combat totalitarian regimes
The state of Israel is, of course, the only liberal democracy in the Middle East. Which means that some of its problems are peculiar to its region, but others have to do with the nature of its democratic system. Many other democracies also find themselves in crisis, partly, because they have to contend with totalitarian regimes. What are the challenges, and do any solutions emerge in this regard?Fri 24.1.2020 at 21.15East Mediterranean conflicts and alliances
Earlier this month, leaders from Israel, Cyprus and Greece held a trilateral meeting in Athens, to discuss further developments in common energy and security interests in the Eastern-Mediterranean. In parallel, Turkey has enlarged its penetration of Libya, in efforts to secure its claim to what Ankara considers to be: its Exclusive Economic Zone.Tue 21.1.2020 at 20.30Prospects of a wider Mideast conflict
The Middle East is still reeling from the aftershocks of the January 2nd targeted killing of Iranian Quds Force commander, Qassem Suleimani, by the United States in Iraq. It remains to be seen whether this will necessitate a revision of the draft-annual threat assessment by intelligence professional in Israel, as well as in the region.Fri 17.1.2020 at 20.30Israel election 2020
In seven weeks-time, Israelis will head to polling stations for the third time in less than a year, in an effort to break Jerusalem’s political deadlock. The main contenders would once again be, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who leads the ruling-Likud and former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, who chairs the centrist Blue and White party. What are the prospects for Israel to finally get a new functioning government?Tue 14.1.2020 at 20.30Jerusalem's security challenges for 2020
With the start of the new year, the Israeli intelligence community, as well as outside experts and thinktanks, have published their annual assessments regarding Israel’s security situation. It also includes the probability of a new wide-scale conflict that could engulf the Jewish State. What lies ahead for Israel and its people in 2020?Fri 10.1.2020 at 18.00The strategic dynamic between Jerusalem and Damascus
A major focus of tension this year is sure to be the Israel-Syria relationship. while gradually coming out of its domestic nine-year conflict, Israel’s northern neighbor is still hosting forces threatening it – most prominently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards elite Quds Force, as well as the Lebanese Hezbollah organization.Fri 3.1.2020 at 20.30Jerusalem Studio’s 2019 Recap
As the year 2019 draws to a close, it is high time to look back and survey its landscape. What was accomplished? What fell short? What can one expect from the year ahead?Fri 27.12.2019 at 20.35Israel’s 3rd round of elections
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who for the last year has headed a caretaker government in Jerusalem, is facing three challenges ahead of the March 2020 election. The first is an internal one within his Likud party. The second challenge pertains to a legal finding regarding his eligibility to form a government, if he obtains the required votes. And, the third is obviously winning the nation-wide parliamentary election.Fri 20.12.2019 at 20.30Is the Middle East on the verge of a second “Arab Spring”?
It is almost nine years since the first signs of upheaval in the Arab world emerged, starting with Tunisia, and quickly spreading east, to Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries. This was the so-called Arab spring, which initially started as a democratic outpouring of popular sentiment, but soon deteriorated into chaos that altered the face of this volatile region.Tue 17.12.2019 at 20.30Europe’s insistence to preserve the Iran nuclear deal
Over the last three years, European powers have seemingly diverged from the American position under the Trump Administration, regarding their policy vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While the United States withdrew from the so-called 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, Europe has been adamant on preserving it – even while Tehran responds to Washington’s challenge by scaling back its commitments under the deal.Fri 13.12.2019 at 20.30- Tue 10.12.2019 at 20.30
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Israel-Iran: Growing prospects of a direct confrontation
Tensions between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran have escalated this past month, with both words and warheads being exchanged between the armed forces of Jerusalem and Tehran. Both sides have warned each other that whatever it does, retaliation is sure to come. Are we on the verge of war between the two nations?Tue 3.12.2019 at 20.30Israel: Political turmoil within uncharted waters
The state of Israel is currently face with the worst constitutional crisis in its seven decade history, despite the paradoxical fact that the Jewish State does not have a constitution. Two election campaigns ended in deadlock and a third one looms, if no candidate is able to form a government this month. What are the probable outcomes amid growing uncertainty?Fri 29.11.2019 at 20.30Israel-Jordan: Diplomacy & Security
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which is almost landlocked and has a demographic majority of citizens of Palestinian origin, has traditionally being considered one of the more fragile of the Arab countries, yet in recent years, it has been surprisingly resilient while its neighbors succumbed to domestic and regional turmoil. It is important to note that the security and stability of Jordan is closely linked to peace with its Western neighbor, the State of Israel.Tue 26.11.2019 at 20.30Israel’s challenge of confronting Gaza Islamist
Last week, Israel and the second most-powerful militant organization in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, exchanged fire for a couple of days – until Egyptian mediators, as well as others, brokered a temporary cessation of hostilities. The most important and surprising feature of this conflagration, was the absence of the enclave’s rulers – the Islamist Hamas organization – which considered its interests and decided to stand aloof.Fri 22.11.2019 at 20.30Russia’s growing influence over the Mideast
Over the last four years, ever since Russia entered in force the Syrian conflict, Moscow reaffirmed its preeminent position in Damascus and the war-torn country at large. As other powers withdrew from regional affairs, Russia has seemingly achieved a generations old aspiration of having a major impact on the Middle East.Tue 19.11.2019 at 20.30Implications of Iran’s nuclear scale-back
Under heightened international pressure, the Islamic Republic of Iran appears to strike back in several ways, not all of them overt. Following the attack on the Saudi oil facilities two months ago, Tehran has taken several steps in the nuclear domain, inching towards a clear violation of its commitments under the 2015 multilateral atomic accord. Is this a sign of more trouble to come, or a mere power-play before a potential diplomatic move?Fri 15.11.2019 at 20.30Israel, vying for security amid political instability
It has been a year since Israel had a fully functioning government and parliament. While the country remains preoccupied by political deadlock, the security challenges surround its borders are not waiting for Jerusalem to put its house in order.Tue 12.11.2019 at 20.30Lebanon, public outcry for security and stability
Israel’s northern neighbor, Lebanon, has been subjected to several weeks of popular upheaval, which include peaceful protests that sporadically turned into violent clashes. The public unrest stemmed from widespread frustration over the country’s failing economy, corruption and the meddling by outside forces and their local proxies.Fri 8.11.2019 at 20.30Is Israel headed to a third round of elections
Some seven weeks have elapsed since the second general election in Israel this year. Despite outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failed attempt to form a new government in Jerusalem, his chief rival former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz does not seem any closer to fulfill the appointed task.Tue 5.11.2019 at 20.30
Does this mean that we may find ourselves, here in Israel, heading yet again towards a third round of national parliamentary elections?Syria, a global effort in war on terror
Syria has been a battle ground, in which various conflicts and forces have intertwined. Along with the civil war, there is the age-old confrontation between Turkey and the Kurdish organizations fighting for aspired independence, global and regional power-struggles for dominance, and Jihadist groups vying to assert Islamic control over territory as a launching pad for further expansion. The latest example, of course, was the successful American operation that brought about the demise of the self-proclaimed Caliph of Daesh, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.Fri 1.11.2019 at 20.30- Tue 29.10.2019 at 20.30
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Turkey’s military plans in Syria
One of the most crucial turning points in the Syrian civil war culminated this week with Turkey’s cross-border incursion into northeastern Syria. While Ankara’s declared goal aims to implement a territorial safe-zone, as a buffer between the Kurdish militias and southern Turkey; the Kurdish forces have been forced to alternate alliances, by submitting to their arch-enemy, Syrian president Bashar Assad.Fri 18.10.2019 at 20.30Egypt: social unrest challenges stability
Egypt is facing a multitude of challenges on the economic, political and security fronts. President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is trying to contend with domestic unrest, while at the same time, seeking to restore his country to its dominant regional position.Tue 15.10.2019 at 20.30Israel-Iran: prospects of wide-scale conflict
Earlier this week Prime Minister Netanyahu convened an urgent cabinet meeting, to discuss the growing threats posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, as perceived by Israel. The new danger discussed is a capability to launch cruise missiles with precision warheads.Fri 11.10.2019 at 20.30Israel’s economic stability and challenges
Israel’s Finance Ministry is projecting a significant slowdown in economic growth of 1-2% – following a rapid 5% growth during the first quarter. Israel’s overall estimated growth during the first half of the year (between 3.2 and 3.4%) is still healthier than many other int’l economies – but there has also a slight increase in unemployment in recent months. The national deficit is rising - as exports are impeded due to the strengthening shequel, whose gains against the US dollar this year made it one of the world's strongest currencies.Tue 8.10.2019 at 20.30U.S.-Israel alliance: challenges and interests
The United States has traditionally been one of the strongest allies of the Jewish State, and visa versa - although there have been strained relations at times over the years.Fri 4.10.2019 at 20.30Iran-Saudi Arabia: Prospects of an all-out conflagration
There has been a sharp rise in rhetoric between the United States and Iran in the wake of 10 drone attacks on Saudi oil installations, on top of already high tensions in the Persian Gulf.Tue 1.10.2019 at 20.30Post-Election Developments in Israel
Israel just historically held its second round of national elections in one year – in fact, only five and a half months apart. The thriving democracy in this country was very much witnessed on September 17th, with a nearly 70% turnout of all eligible voters, which is very high; to participate in a political system based on multi-party, proportional representation of all the nations citizens.Fri 27.9.2019 at 18.00Reemergence of the Islamic State
If one were to take at face value the triumphant announcements by leaders of the global coalition against the Islamic State, or Daesh - this Islamist organization which took over large parts of Iraq and Syria has been not only decimated… but defeated altogether by the end of last year. Yet, as was to be expected, there are persistent reports of the Islamic State’s re-emergence, in various forms and places.Tue 24.9.2019 at 20.30Islam’s Shi’ite-Sunni Mideast Rivalries
The most ferocious religious conflicts are often not those between different religions, but rather between various streams within a common religion. That is no longer true in the context of Christianity between Catholics, Protestants and Orthodox, but it is certainly the case in Islam, with the Shiites led by Iran hostile towards the Sunnis led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia.Fri 20.9.2019 at 20.30Israel’s Parliamentary Election Day
Israelis have been flocking to the polling stations today, for the second time this year, and are now anxiously awaiting the projections coming out of the exit polls, while the final and formal results will emerge in the next few days. The suspense has to do with the notion that this might be outgoing-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s most difficult electoral challenge, following thirteen years at the helm of the Jewish State.Tue 17.9.2019 at 20.30Syria, eight-and-a-half year to its multi-sided conflict
It is now one-hundred months since Syria became subjected to - what started as a popular uprising and quickly turned into a civil war – ultimately being transformed into a multi-dimensional conflict, involving regional and global forces.Fri 13.9.2019 at 20.30Iran and the West - latest developments
The tense relationship between Iran and the West seems to be moving along two contradictory trajectories. While the U.S. Administration has not budged from its official maximum pressure campaign against the Ayatollah regime, President Donald Trump has blessed an initiative by his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, to seek a diplomatic rapprochement.Tue 10.9.2019 at 20.30Israeli preparedness amid heightened tensions
Earlier this week, Israelis braced themselves for a flare-up along the countries northern border. The leader of Iran’s Lebanese-proxy Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, promised retaliation for certain Israeli actions a week prior. In the events, Nasrallah made good on his pledge – yet, the incident ended without casualties – a fact that mitigated prospects for further escalation.Fri 6.9.2019 at 20.30Europe, a Union of Divisions in Foreign Policy
Does Europe have a distinct position on the major issues of the Middle East, and is it really united in its stand vis-à-vis Iran, Syria and other foreign policy security concerns? This question poses itself especially following last week’s G7 summit that provided a forum for world leaders to debate their various positions.Tue 3.9.2019 at 20.30Iraq, a battlefield of global and regional rivalries
Attention in the Middle East has gradually returned to a country, which in recent years seemed to have faded from its center stage prominence. The country in question: Iraq, is fighting remnants of the Islamic State, which lives on through its hold on key religious and ideological institutions. The Central Government in Baghdad is also trying to avoid collapse, due to various ethnic components pulling Iraq apart, while at the same time it contends with the ongoing stand-off between Iran and its regional adversaries.Fri 30.8.2019 at 20.30Rising tensions in and around the Gaza Strip
Israel’s southern frontier has been flaring up constantly over the last year and a half, with the Israeli military and the Islamist Palestinian factions in the Hamas-controlled enclave exchanging fire. Both sides appear to be relatively restrained – making every apparent effort to refrain from gliding into a full-scale conflagration.Tue 27.8.2019 at 20.30Iran vs West, strategies & tactics
Gibraltar Authorities ended a weekly long stalemate between Britain and the Islamic Republic last week, by releasing an Iranian oil tanker that was seized upon the request of the United States. This would seemingly help relieve some of the tensions revolving the confrontation between Washington and Tehran, but the so-called Grace affair, is only one part of a multi-dimensional strife between the Trump Administration and the Khamenei regime.Fri 23.8.2019 at 20.30- Tue 20.8.2019 at 20.30
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The Iran crisis amidst global rivalries
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The European Union and Israel
The relationship between the European Union and Israel has had its ups and downs. Some may say that the Jewish State, which lies in close territorial proximity to the continent and partakes in European sports and cultural events, should be considered for all practical purposes both Middle Eastern and European. Diplomatically, Jerusalem maintains permanent mission – accredited to the EU in Brussels. Lesser known, is an independent advocacy group whose declared aim is 'to help improve relations between Israel and the European bloc.'Tue 30.7.2019 at 21.15Iran and its nuclear ambitions
Jerusalem Studio Special from Tel Aviv with Former IAEA Deputy Director General Olli Heinonen. We discuss the Islamic Republic of Iran and its nuclear ambitions as well as the international scrutiny directed at it. Host Jonathan Hessen.Fri 28.6.2019 at 20.30
